It’s not the fight we were expecting for Khabib’s next title defense, but I really am not too upset with this matchup. It is a shame that we’ll probably never get to see Ferguson v. Khabib, yet I have a feeling this one won’t disappoint. It feels fitting to close out this run on Fight Island with a Khabib fight. Former Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker faces Jared Cannonier in a #1 contender fight to face Israel Adesanya. Big Ticket Walt Harris is making his first trip to the octagon since his heart breaking loss to Alistair Overeem, when he fights Alexander Volkov. Knockoff Cowboy, Alex Oliveira welcomes newcomer Shavkat Rakhmonov to the octagon. This card is pretty good. Well, here are my picks.
MAIN CARD
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV V. JUSTIN GAETHJE
I have been going back and forth on this one for weeks. Khabib is one of the pound for pound greatest fighters of all time. He is the undefeated champion. For the longest time he was on a collision course with Ferguson. Gaethje stepped into the octagon with Ferguson and said sorry to every fan of the UFC. Instead of getting the insane wrestling of Khabib v. the insane unorthodox style of Ferguson, we get the classic wrestler v. striker matchup.
We know Khabib is going to come into the octagon and try to take Gaethje down and smash him into oblivion or choke him out. Khabib’s wrestling is otherworldly and no one has been able to keep Khabib off them for long.
We know Gaethje is going to try to keep this on the feet and keep it a brawl. Gaethje uses leg kicks to keep his distance. He has a good overhand right and left hook that he uses for his finishes. Nineteen of his twenty two wins have been by TKO/KO. Every fight Gaethje’s wrestling history is brought up, and every fight Gaethje completely ignores his wrestling. Well, I don’t think Khabib will let him ignore wrestling this time in the octagon. Gaethje’s takedown defense is very good and if he can keep this fight on the feet, it’ll be even better for him. Gaethje trained with welterweight champion Kamaru Usman before this fight, and you have to think Usman helped him with his wrestling even more.
I will probably hate myself for this, but I am leaning towards Gaethje controlling the distance and the location of the fight.
Justin Gaethje (+280) by decision
ROBERT WHITTAKER V. JARED CANNONIER
Former middleweight champion Whittaker is coming off a win against Darren Till to face Jared Cannonier. This is the biggest fight of Cannonier’s career. If Cannonier wins, he will get a title shot against Adesanya. I don’t see why a Whittaker win would hold him back from getting a title shot either. This should be a banger of a fight. Two solid strikers. Whittaker is speed and angles and Cannonier is all power. I love this matchup. It should deliver a very entertaining fight for us. Neither guy is going to try to wrestle or bore us to death. I think Whittaker is a bit more talented, he is a former champion. He has gone up against better competition. Cannonier started at heavyweight, then moved down to light heavyweight, before moving down to middleweight. He carries a lot of power. Whittaker has survived some battles with heavy hitters. Adesanya and Wonderboy Thompson are the only two fighters to TKO Whittaker. I think he will be able to weather anything Cannonier throws.
Robert Whittaker (-110) by decision
ALEXANDER VOLKOV V. WALT HARRIS
Heavyweight battle of guys just outside title contention. This will be a fun matchup. For Volkov, surviving Harris’ initial outburst is key. Harris likes to come out firing and go for the quick kill, but he tends to gas out after that. Volkov’s cardio is usually good and the longer the fight lasts, the better his odds of winning will be. This should be a fun heavyweight fight as both guys like to throw down. Well, it should at least be a fun first round as Harris tends to slow down after the first. If it goes as I think, it shouldn’t go past the first round. Harris is going to come out firing and try to get the finish he couldn’t get in his last fight.
Walt Harris (+150) by 1st round TKO
JACOB MALKOUN V. PHIL HAWES
Phil Hawes (-250) by decision
LAUREN MURPHY V. LILIYA SHAKIROVA
I don’t know much about Shakirova. But I do know Lauren Murphy is a grinder and one tough son of a bitch. She’s the nastier version of Roxanne Modafferi. She somehow finds ways to win even if she is way older and a lot less athletic than her opponent. I don’t know if she is less athletic, I just assume so in this case. I have a feeling Murphy is going to make this an ugly fight and grind out a tough decision.
Lauren Murphy (-210) by decision
MAGOMED ANKALAEV V. ION CUTELABA
The rematch no one really wanted but were told we wanted. Ankalaev destroyed Cutelaba in the first fight, but a weird stoppage sequence followed by an eye poke finish in the main event made this finish seem more controversial for some weird reason. That made this rematch seem like a good idea. Then the rona struck Cutelaba’s camp and this fight had to be rebooked twice before finally taking place on this card. The first fight Ankalaev rocked Cutelaba and had him up against the cage before the ref stopped it. Cutelaba claimed he was playing possum to lure him in before going on the offensive, but that was most likely bullshit. Ankalaev looked a lot better and I can’t imagine this fight playing out much different than the first fight.
Magomed Ankalaev (-330) by 1st round TKO
PRELIMS
STEFAN STRUVE V. TAI TUIVASA
The useless skyscraper Stefan Struve against the Shoey drinking Bam Bam Tuivasa. This will probably play out with Stuve not using his insane reach advantage like always. Tuivasa will charge forward throwing haymakers because he knows he can’t last past the first round. My prediction is Bam Bam lands a big punch. Then he drinks a shoey, whether we get to see it or not is a different story altogether.
Tai Tuivasa (-125) by 1st round TKO
NATHANIEL WOOD V. CASEY KENNEY
The prospect Nathaniel Wood faces the consummate grinder in Casey Kenney. Kenney’s last fight really won me over. The guy is tough as nails and somehow finds ways to win. It is impressive. Wood has serious power but that seems to be his only path to victory. I like Kenney to grind his way to a win.
Casey Kenney (-165) by decision
ALEX OLIVEIRA V. SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV
Knockoff Cowboy faces undefeated newcomer Shavkat Rakhmonov. I don’t know anything about Shavkat except he is from Kazakhstan and I hope he comes out to Borat’s version of the Kazakhstan National Anthem. Knockoff Cowboy is a tough fighter that is solid everywhere and is one of those guys that is a grinder and finds ways to win. He is a gatekeeper and a solid first opponent for Shavkat. Unfortunately for him, I think Knockoff Cowboy might be a bit too much for his UFC debut.
Alex Oliveira (+100) by 1st round TKO
JUNG DA UN V. SAM ALVEY
Jung Da Un (-350) by 2nd round TKO
LIANA JOJUA V. MIRANDA MAVERICK
Miranda Maverick (-400) by 3rd round submission
JOEL ALVAREZ V. ALEXANDER YAKOVLEV
Alexander Yakovlev (+140) by decision
FIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON
ROBERT WHITTAKER V. JARED CANNONIER
It’s odd to think that after six years and one failed legacy in the UFC this fight amounts to a complete wild card for Machida. We still don’t really know how good he can be at middleweight. He’ll go off as the underdog on Saturday night, but that feels more like an educated guess than a real prediction of the outcome.