This is the first Newark card in 3 years I will not be attending. Dana has priced out actual fans but I hope he enjoys people not showing up until the main card and having 0 energy. Outside of that nonsense, this is a pretty solid card for a 2 PPV month, I guess that’s the benefit of having 3 terrible cards in a row leading to this. Merab vs O’Malley 2 will be a lot of the same, but Kayla hopefully can pull Amanda out of retirement, Pyfer needs to put up or shut up against Kelvin, Patchy Mix can avenge our boy Aldo, Kevin Holland may not even be fighting by the time I post this but if he is that fight should be electric. A lot of super lopsided lines tonight, I expect to turn a lot of these prop bets into parlays to take off a lot of the juice. Alright let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Bantamweight Championship Bout
Really expecting this one to be pretty identical to the first fight. Just like before it is Suga with a puncher’s chance and Merab with infinite cardio to keep pushing the pace and shooting for takedowns. Sean seems to be more locked in than last time, but I just don’t think he is strong enough to avoid Merab for long enough to get a win here. Merab is Merab, we know what he is bringing into every fight he’s in, and it normally works. Suga would have to rock him early and take him out of it in order to get a win, I just do not see a world where that happens.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (Prop Line) -175 1 unit (no value)
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison Bantamweight Championship Bout
Oh boy I am so ready for this ass whooping. Pena has to be the most annoying female champion of all time. We all know how mediocre she is. If she didn’t have that lucky win against Nunes we wouldn’t even remember her name. Kayla has been a dominant force in MMA since making the move from Judo. Her only loss came to an opponent she beat twice, you could tell she was bored in the PFL and lost that hunger. Kayla is going to come in here and absolutely ragdoll Pena. I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends in the first, but I will give Julianna a little more credit than that.
Kayla Harrision by 2nd Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) -160 1 unit
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Middleweight Bout
Pyfer is pretty fucking annoying these days. I liked the guy when he was coming up, but he has just been an excuse machine ever since he lost in Mexico City. Oh you didn’t get fraud checked, but Bo losing was a fraud check? Bo lost to a 2 weight ONE Champion, you lost to Jack Hermansson. Kelvin is a weird fighter, never know what version of him is going to show up. He is a fat welterweight that has to stay at 185 now because he can’t stop eating. Still love the guy though. His boxing and tough chin is going to piss Pyfer off and get him to fight sloppy, which is not the kind of fight Pyfer can win.
Kelvin Gastelum by Decision +300 1 unit
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix Bantamweight Bout
Fuck Bautista, no fighter in the UFC world is more hated that Mario Bautista. Point fighting a legend in one of his last bouts, you are a loser and I wish you the worst. On the bright side, Patchy Mix is one of the best UFC acquisitions in a long time. He was crushing in Bellator, taking out a lot of big names in the process. He is going to manhandle Bautista, I see this going to the ground a few times before Mix is able to lock in a choke and deliver Mario to his eternal resting place.
Patchy Mix by 2nd Round Submission -180 2 units
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Welterweight Bout
Is Kevin Holland actually good? He is the most confusing fighter on the UFC roster. Dude will look pretty solid at welterweight, then take like 3 middleweight fights and lose miserably, then come back to welterweight and look good again. I think he is outmatched in this one though. Luque can look like a title challenger or a journeyman on any given day, but this matchup should be perfect for him. He will be able to strike with him but also has the grappling advantage if he is able to get in clinch range. Holland will need to keep his distance early or else my guy Luque will get inside and end this quickly.
Vicente Luque by 1st Round Submission +170 1 unit
Prelims
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van Flyweight Bout
Joshua Van by Decision (Win in Rd 3 or Decision) -145 2 units
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro Light Heavyweight Bout
Azamat Murzakanov by 1st Round TKO (SGP u 1.5 Rds and +15 Sig Strikes) +275 1 unit
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Heavyweight Bout
Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision +136 1 unit
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson Welterweight Bout
Andreas Gustafsson by 3rd Round TKO +165 1 unit
Early Prelims
Ariane da Silva vs. Cong Wang Catchweight (132 lb) Bout
Cong Wang by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -145 1 unit
Jeka Saragih vs. Joo-sang Yoo Featherweight Bout
Joo-sang Yoo by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) -165 1 unit
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz Lightweight Bout
Yanal Ashmouz by Decision +320 1 unit
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski Lightweight Bout
MarQuel Mederos by 1st Round TKO -150 1 unit
Draftkings Lineup:
That is all I have for you this evening of violence. Excited to be able to hang out at home, smoke some weed, and lock into this card. Hoping to get some clarity as we get closer to the event on what parlays to make. Be sure to follow along on X in case any of these bets change or I put together an absolute banger of a parlay. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!