Violence is in the air and I am ready to sit down after my Passover Seder and watch some lads beat the shit out of each other. The UFC has been the topic of much scrutiny lately, no big stars, cards aren’t good enough to bring in casual fans, viewership is down tremendously, maybe even UFC fatigue. To all that I say, yeah probably. I have been a pretty vocal advocate for going back to a card every other week so you don’t burn out all the good matchups on apex fight night main events. You are putting all of the top contender fights as headline fights for cards no one watches because the rest stink while putting guys barely in the top 10 of their division on PPV cards. That leaves us with this PPV that has a vacant Mickey Mouse title fight, a nonsense lightweight matchup that is just to propel a rising star, a redo of getting a Bellator GOAT to the top of the division, Nazi vs Nerd, and a very underwhelming light heavyweight matchup to start it all off. I am a large Volkanovski fan and I like Diego Lopes, but we know the real champ is Ilia and he vacated without any reason really, dude will probably be back. Paddy has the chance to be that star the UFC desperately needs, but is he even good enough? Pitbull is 37 so this is his only chance to climb the ranks and get to UFC Gold (or not since they keep giving Chandler chances). Whatever, I am still going to watch and gamble my heart out to try and get to a profit this year. Enough of my bitching and moaning, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Featherweight Bout
What a weird title fight we have here. Volk is coming off 2 straight losses, albeit to the 2 best fighters in the world right now, but now to have a shot at the vacant title it seems a little meaningless. Diego Lopes is coming off 5 straight wins, 1 of which is to a top 5 fighter at the time, the rest were mediocre at best. Diego Lopes’ best accolade may be nearly beating Movsar on short notice in his debut, which I think we put a little too much weight on. If Volk was a 1 trick pony I would be a little more worried about this fight, but I don’t see where Lopes beats him. Islam has been the only person able to hold Volk down and he is enormous for a lightweight, Lopes is a good size featherweight. Volk has a clear standup edge so not worried about what will happen on the feet. This is a puncher’s chance fight for Lopes, which we have seen can work against Volk, but I don’t see it happening here. Hopefully this sets up a Movsar rematch for Diego.
Alexander Volkanovski by Decision -142 2 units
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett Lightweight Bout
This pick may have some bias going into it. The UFC is so cooked if Paddy loses this fight. The line may be a little too much in Paddy’s favor, but we just can’t have him lose here. If Chandler gets the win and sets back the most entertaining UFC fighter in the world then we are set up for more mediocrity in the weight class and the same 5 goddamn fighters being recycled in and out. Also if Paddy wins, it could be the only chance we have at Ilia taking a non title lightweight fight. Everyone in the world wants to see those 2 finally go at it. On the more analytical side, Chandler will probably have Paddy in trouble early as he is known to do. If Paddy makes it to the 2nd round I won’t have a worry in the world, Chandler will do something idiotic and find himself in a choke.
Paddy Pimblett by 2nd Round Submission -142 1 unit
Yair Rodríguez vs. Patrício Pitbull Featherweight Bout
I have been a Pitbull fan for a pretty long time now. He won me a pretty penny in the rematch against AJ McKee. He has long been the Bellator GOAT for as long as I can remember, even beating Chandler’s ass in the first round. I wish with all my heart he made this move sooner, he really could have been a contender at 145, it was so top heavy at the time with Aldo, Conor, and Holloway he could have easily been the 4th guy competing with them. Now he is 37 and up against a very tough Yair Rodriguez who seems to be fitting into that gatekeeper role, beating up contenders but not able to compete against the top of the division. This will be the ultimate test to see if Pitbull still has the juice to make a run at real gold. He has what it takes in this one, but who he has to face next will probably be too much.
Patricio Pitbull by Decision +170 1 unit
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva Featherweight Bout
This is going to be a first for me, but I am abstaining from betting on this fight. I am a Jew and have such an enormous disdain for Bryce Mitchell (whom I used to very much like) that now I just can’t see this clearly. The line makes absolutely no sense, how is Silva such a favorite? Bryce, while being a Nazi piece of shit and should get cut from the UFC, is a top fighter in this division with his losses coming to the top of the top. If I didn’t want to cheer with all my might against Bryce, I would likely bet on him here.
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes Light Heavyweight Bout
This fight stinks out loudly. Who the fuck cares about who wins this? Neither of these dudes should sniff a title fight for a long time. Dominick looked like the cream of the crop, nearly beating the GOAT Jon Jones for the belt. Since then he has been mediocre as mediocre can be, beating meh fighters and losing to slightly better than meh fighters. Since he is on a win streak I will pull for him here just to make the division a little more interesting, maybe he found his talent again. As for Krylov, he is just not very good. Never was very good, likely never will be very good. Might just take this one to end in general before the judges but for now I am on Reyes.
Dominick Reyes by 2nd Round TKO +145 1 unit
Prelims
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson Featherweight Bout
Dan Ige by Decision +145 1 unit
Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba Strawweight Bout
Virna Jandiroba by Decision -142 1 unit
Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper Lightweight Bout
Chase Hooper by 1st Round Submission (Prop Sub Line) -120 1 unit
Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa Featherweight Bout
Julian Erosa by Decision (SGP o 1.5 rds) +100 1 unit
Early Prelims
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk Middleweight Bout
Sedruques Dumas by 1st Round TKO +164 1 unit
Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo Flyweight Bout
Mitch Raposo by 3rd Round TKO +145 1 unit
Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio Middleweight Bout
Marco Tulio by 1st Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) -125 1 unit
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan Bantamweight Bout
Nora Cornolle by Decision (SGP o 1.5 rds) +100 1 unit
Draftkings Lineup:
That is all I have for you this fight night. Feeling good about some of these bets, but the amount of underdogs I like does concern me. I probably will be tweeting some parlays that will miss by 1 leg so make sure to follow on X, the everything app, so you can join in the misery. Going to be one of the first cards in a while that I am not going out for so it’ll be nice and easy to stick to my units and gamble responsibly, you should all do the same. As always, may luck be your lady tonight! And FUCK Bryce Mitchell.