¡Hola mis amigos, tenemos violencia esta noche! Dana has pulled out all the stops and put on what looks to be an amazing card for UFC Noche at the Sphere. All last weekend my friends and I were trying to put together parlays that would give us enough money to attend, but alas, we did not succeed. I will unfortunately be watching, probably very drunk, after a full day of college football. We have Suga Sean vs Merab finally, we have the trilogy fight between Grasso and Valentina, Ortega and Diego Lopes finally clash, Zellhuber vs Ribovics should be pure entertainment, and then Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne kicks off the PPV in what should be a fun fight. A pretty short card relative to recent events, but helps put focus on the big matchups, not to mention the only early prelim being Mr. Chiwiwis himself Raul Rosas. Let’s get into these picks already.
Main Card
Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Bantamweight Championship Bout
This is a pretty big bias pick for me. Who in the world is going to cheer for the guy that just shoots takedowns for 25 min? Me, someone who is a devout follower of LAW MMA. You have a fighter going for a belt that trains on Long Island? I am going to bet on them. Also think it’s a little silly to not bet on Merab when he’s a dog, dude has an infinite tank and strong chin. Suga Sean is likely way better for this division, but I have to stick to my guns here. Merab is going to land a zillion takedowns and get Suga scared to throw anything with power. We are in for a long one here.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision +110 2 units
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Flyweight Championship Bout
Valentina needs to stop playing with her goddamn food. 2 fights against Alexa Grasso she has had victory within her grasp and she lets it slip through her fingers. At this point the only way I see Valentina losing is if Father Time has actually gotten a hold of her. Grasso getting the takedowns is always shocking, I truly don’t believe she has an advantage there and Valentina just needs to fight smarter and defend against it. Valentina finds her distance faster in this one and maybe even lands a few takedowns of her own. She wins this and gets that gold back, maybe even a retirement after.
Valentina Shevchenko by Decision +120 2 units
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Featherweight Bout
This is a big value pick for me. Brian Ortega has only truly lost to 2 UFC fighters at featherweight, and both are in the GOAT conversation. Diego Lopes is a very good fighter and will be a contender for the next few years, but how are we disrespecting Brian Ortega after the career he has had. Everywhere Diego is good, Ortega is better. The only rationale I can see for Lopes being the favorite is just that he has been more active. I wouldn’t be devastated to lose this one, but the value on this bet is just too good to not take Ortega.
Brian Ortega by 2nd Round Submission +160 1 unit
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics Lightweight Bout
This was my toughest decision. Zellhuber is a sizable favorite here, likely because of the talent he has taken out so far early in his career, but Ribovics is no slouch. He just destroyed TRex (this used to mean I think they are unbeatable) and had a good win against Kamuela Kirk in the fight prior. The issue here will be the height and reach advantage. Zellhuber is going to fight from his distance for 15 minutes, if he can land that one shot this will be over. He is going to avoid dangerous situations which makes me think this fight goes the distance instead.
Daniel Zellhuber by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -125 1 unit
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne Flyweight Bout
This one probably doesn’t deserve to be on the main card. Ronaldo Rodriguez is in his 2nd fight in his early UFC career, coming off a finish of Denys Bondar. He has a big arsenal of KO power and submissions, this man can win anywhere. Ode Osbourne is on a bit of a skid, losing his last 2. He has never been more than a solid standup fighter, I see him having a very difficult time with Rodriguez. Shocked this line was that close, this will be an early destruction, may even consider changing this to Rodriguez by finish instead.
Ronaldo Rodriguez by 1st Round Submission -160 2 units
Prelims
Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont Bantamweight Bout
Norma Dumont by Decision -110 1 unit
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres Lightweight Bout
Manuel Torres by 2nd Round Submission -130 1 unit
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza Strawweight Bout
Yazmin Jauregui by 1st Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) +240 1 unit
Édgar Cháirez vs. Joshua Van Flyweight Bout
Joshua Van by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
Early Prelims
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Qileng Bantamweight Bout
Raul Rosas by 1st Round Submission (SGP u 1.5 Rds) -120 1 unit
Draftkings Lineup:
That is all I have for this evening of violence. Really hoping South Carolina can win during the day so I am not too much of a rec by the time this card starts. If my tweets start to look like gibberish, just know I am having a fun day. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!