Crikey mate! Looks like we got a title fight on the barbie today! Ok PPV from uncle Dana tonight, only one title fight but not really any bad fights on the card except the lopsided early fights. One of the first cards in a very long time where I have absolutely no plans and I can just sit at home, smoke a bit, and gamble away my life savings. Looks like there is some money to be made here, but a lot of the main card fights lines are a little steep for my taste so keep an eye on twitter in case I tweet out some parlays. I am excited to see DDP and Izzy finally come to blows, KKF vs Erceg should be fun, Gamrot vs Hooker will be a great test for both guys, Tai Tuivasa vs Jair shouldn’t take long, and the Leech looks to get back in the win column after a 2 year layoff. Alright, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya Middleweight Championship Bout
This has been one of my most anticipated bouts for a long time now. Both of these dudes have had me as a fan and lost me as a fan and regained me as a fan at some point in their careers. Before the press conference, I was pretty locked in on picky Izzy to win this confidently. My confidence has waned a bit as he got mentally destroyed by the true African champ. DDP has had an insane run to get the belt beating Till, Brunson, Whittaker, and then eventually Strickland. On that run, I do think he was getting beat by both Till and Strickland, one ending in a fortunate submission and the other a lucky decision. He definitely faired better against Strickland than Izzy did, but I think that was just a matchup nightmare, kind of like Gastelum was for him. Even with the hoopla, I see Izzy just picking DDP apart with no issue. This will look like the Vettori fight all over again.
Israel Adesanya by Decision -110 2 units
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Flyweight Bout
This may be a hot take, but I have never thought Kai Kara-France is that good. He is one of those well rounded fighters who is solid everywhere, but gets beat by anyone who is really good at one thing. I see the first round being a lot of feeling each other out, but Erceg should be able to outclass him by the 2nd round. I don’t know what KKF can do to take this one outside of a puncher’s chance. It may take some time but Erceg will show that he belongs in another title match.
Steve Erceg by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -115 1 unit
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker Lightweight Bout
Dan Hooker is always a blast to watch. I almost never think he will win but he will make me nervous every single time. He is coming off 2 great and shocking wins against Puelles and Turner, helping himself climb back up the lightweight ladder after dropping 4 out of 5 previously. The problem is, he is going up against Gamrot now. This dude is going to be too strong for Hooker to avoid the grappling exchanges. I see a lot of this fight taking place on the ground or against the cage with Hooker never having the controlling position. Slow burn win for Gamrot here.
Mateusz Gamrot by Decision (Win in Rd 3 or Dec) -185 2 units
Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Heavyweight Bout
This fight will just be a ticking time bomb till someone goes to sleep. I really wanted to take Tuivasa here, went back and forth trying to get the courage to just do it. Allas I couldn’t, this fight will stay on the feet, and Jair has such an advantage standing, Tai would have to get super lucky to land that shot. Only Volkov and Ngannou have beaten him standing before and Tai is not near that level unfortunately.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by 1st Round TKO (Win in Rd 1-2) -140 1 unit
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates Welterweight Bout
LEECH! After his last bout and not getting a chance to wear his new suit to the presser, he would have to be fighting God himself for me to not pick him. Prates is pretty good, but way too big of a favorite against a seasoned veteran who wins often as an underdog. Leech is going to land a punch that sends shockwaves through the sport. Might get a title shot immediately after for his heartache.
Li Jingliang by 2nd Round TKO +285 1 unit
Prelims
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker Heavyweight Bout
Valter Walker by 1st Round TKO +102 1 unit
Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos Featherweight Bout
Joshua Culibao by Decision -125 1 unit
Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos Flyweight Bout
Luana Santos by Decision -142 1 unit
Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns Featherweight Bout
Jack Jenkins by 2nd Round TKO (Win in Rd 2) +250 1 unit (this line is brutal, probably will just throw him by finish in a parlay)
Early Prelims
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes Lightweight Bout
Tom Nolan by 1st Round TKO (Win in Rd 1 by TKO) -150 1 unit
Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn Welterweight Bout
Kenan Song by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) +165 1 unit
Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar Flyweight Bout
Jesus Aguilar by 1st Round Submission +170 1 unit
Draftkings Lineup:
That’s all I have for this evening of violence down under. Let’s get some wins early to bank roll the rest of the evening. Been having a good UFC year betting (MLB not so much) and would like to continue to see my balance grow. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!