We are back! It feels like it has been forever off after just one weekend of no UFC but honestly, it was much needed. The cards started getting very thin and we had to deal with a lot of no names, but now there’s a decent name in pretty much every one of these fights. I feel kind of gross because I did not take a single underdog during the prelims, but the lines were so lopsided and other than Ariane Lipski, I really don’t see any having a chance. My main card is a little more sprinkled with some dogs that are getting disrespect as you’ll see in my astute analysis. This main event is pretty rough, I am a big Augusto Sakai hater and do not believe he should be a headliner by any means, but this is a pretty well rounded card outside of that so lets get into these picks.
Main card
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai Heavyweight Bout
As mentioned previously, I really dislike Augusto Sakai. He has an extremely boring style for heavyweight and it really isn’t sustainable in a division with men who can knock you out in the blink of an eye. He will try to either get the clinch or fight at a distance to neutralize Jair, but he won’t be able to secure a takedown so it will be useless. Rozenstruik was picked apart by Cyril Gane in his last bout, an absolute clinic put on him, but that just makes it a learning experience. He knows he can’t be constantly swinging for the fences and will need to find his openings against a guy who may have the technical advantage over him. I imagine the first round will be very slow with both guys being shy to exchange, then in the second Jair will be more comfortable and find Sakai’s chin and put him to sleep.
Jair Rozenstruik by 2nd Round TKO -120 3 units
Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura Heavyweight Bout
I mentioned I hate Sakai, but I despise Tybura. That man throws like 4 strikes a fight and just tries to clinch and hump you until the bell. The problem is, that Walt fucking sucks at wrestling as we have seen time and time again. So you may ask yourself, why the fuck did I take Walt Harris? For the chance that he just comes out and knocks his fucking head off to start things off. Walt almost did this to Overeem but didn’t get the generosity out of the ref to get it stopped. I do not think Tybura is as tough as Overeem.
Walt Harris 1st Round TKO +160 1 unit
Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli Middleweight Bout
This is a pretty even matchup as the line dictates, but it’s Starapoli’s middleweight debut. Roman has the experience going against the bigger boys and Staropoli wasn’t anything special at 170. I know a lot of fighters look like completely new men when they move up to a more natural weight, but I don’t see the talent in Staropoli for his game to elevate that much. Dolidze has had issues with grapplers, which Staropoli is not, nor does he have the strength advantage. I feel like this will be a stand up clinic and should be an easy cash.
Roman Dolidze by Decision -140 2 units
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza Welterweight Bout
My mans Santiago is getting absolutely disrespected as the dog out here. We almost saw Miguel Baeza get starched by Matt Brown in the first round of their bout, and he hasn’t fought much competition of note otherwise. Ponzinibbio definitely looked rusty before getting destroyed by Jingliang but Baeza doesn’t pose as much of a threat early in the fight which will allow Ponzi to get more comfortable. I see the return of the man who looked like a contender before that long layoff and an end to Baeza’s unbeaten record.
Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision +105 1 unit
Duško Todorović vs. Gregory Rodrigues Middleweight Bout
I am not going to lie, I do not know too much about either of these guys. Neither has fought any prime competition and not sure why either are on the main card when there are better fighters on the prelims. That being said, it looks like either of these fighters can throw heavy hands, but Rodrigues has the grappling advantage too (if his tank holds up). I see some swinging for the fences and one of them dropping early, hopefully my guy is still standing.
Gregory Rodrigues by 1st Round TKO +117 1 unit
Tom Breese vs. Antônio Arroyo Middleweight Bout
Not too much to say about this one also, neither guy is anything special with both dropping their most recent and Arroyo being on a 2 fight skid. Breese has better wins and stronger competition faced in general. I see him just controlling this fight from the get go and getting that mid fight finish against a very average Antonio Arroyo.
Tom Breese to win by 2nd Round TKO +125 (Prop Finish Line) 1 unit
Prelims
Montana De La Rosa vs. Ariane Lipski Flyweight Bout
Montana De La Rosa by Decision -106 (Prop Line) 1 unit
Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi Heavyweight Bout
Tanner Boser by Decision -185 3 units
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Muslim Salikhov Welterweight Bout
Muslin Salikhov by Decision +165 (Prop Line) 1 unit
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Kamuela Kirk Featherweight Bout
Makwan Amirkhani by 2nd Round Submission +130 (Prop Finish Line) 1 unit
Alan Patrick vs. Mason Jones Lightweight Bout
Mason Jones by 1st Round TKO +120 (Prop TKO Line) 1 unit
Manon Fiorot vs. Tabatha Ricci Flyweight Bout
Manon Fiorot by 2nd Round TKO -140 (Prop TKO Line) 2 units
Sean Woodson vs. Youssef Zalal Featherweight Bout
Sean Woodson by Decision -150 2 units
Claudio Puelles vs. Jordan Leavitt Lightweight Bout
Jordan Leavitt by 1st Round Submission +120 (Prop Finish Line) 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you this evening. There are a lot of fights and a lot of chances to win fat stacks of cash. I really like my prelim bets which I never usually do, and have a couple 3 unit horse cock locks of the evening that I have never been so confident about. Otherwise that’s it, be smart and gamble responsibly, and as always may luck be your lady tonight!