Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC 249

It is finally here. UFC 249 is tonight, and with it the return of sports. The first step back to normal in our time of quarantine. Coronavirus has made us go into lockdown and put the sports world on pause and it has sucked. I missed MMA and the violence and fun it has brought me. When friends and family asked which sport would be the first one back, I always answered UFC. Dana White was always going to be the first one with the balls to put on a show and tonight is the night he does it and I am fucking excited for it. The card is stacked, and only one fight was scrapped due to the ‘rona. I hope Jacare and his cornermen are doing alright. All that being said, let’s get to the picks. 

MAIN CARD

TONY FERGUSON V. JUSTIN GAETHJE

Not the main event we were hoping for, but the main event we are all excited for. This is still a match made in heaven. These are two guys that love violence and should be a fight filled with blood, smiles and entertainment. I can’t imagine we will see much idle time in this one, and we will all be happy for that. Justin Gaethje usually comes out hot and firing on all cylinders, and that’s why 9 of his 18 KO/TKOs happened in the 1st round. Gaethje is a knockout artist and has 18 KO/TKOs in 21 wins and he will be aiming for one here. This is his chance to earn a title shot against Khabib, and he can play spoiler to the fight that every MMA fan in the world wants to see. Other than Khabib, I think Gaethje is the only lightweight that has a chance to beat Ferguson.

Tony Ferguson is by far the second best lightweight in MMA. He hasn’t lost since May 5, 2012, a decision loss to Michael Johnson. Since then, he’s won 12 straight fights by every possible way. His last four wins were over Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Cowboy Cerrone. 

Ferguson is one of those crazy fighters that likes to be hit to start a fight, he will take some damage from Gaethje, will probably be rocked. Everyone is going to think Gaethje is going to finish the fight. That is when Ferguson is usually his most dangerous. He finds his way out of danger and gets his opponents into weird positions and finds ways to get the finish. Ferguson’s cardio is outstanding. Gaethje’s cardio isn’t nearly as good as Ferguson’s. If Ferguson can get Gaethje into the later rounds, this is Ferguson’s fight to lose. He sees the Khabib fight, and knows this is his last roadblock.

Tony Ferguson by 3rd round TKO

HENRY CEJUDO V. DOMINICK CRUZ

This has been the hardest fight to pick for me. There are so many factors in this fight. Both are coming off of injuries. Obviously, Cruz’s injury was more serious and the layoff was nearly 3.5 years. But many people are forgetting Cejudo had shoulder surgery last year after beating Marlon Moraes in June 2019 to win the Bantamweight title. We don’t know how he is going to look coming off of surgery. Especially to his shoulder when he was starting to fall in love with his knockout power. Cejudo hadn’t suffered many injuries in his UFC career, so where is his mind in his recovery and comeback. We know mentally he is very strong. The guy won a gold medal in the Olympics. He is a two division UFC champion. The guy has all of the credentials. That cannot be taken away from him. He is very talented. One of the most talented combat athletes of all time. If he didn’t do the King of Cringe shit, he would probably be a fan favorite. Cejudo’s last three wins are over Mighty Mouse (best flyweight ever), TJ Dillashaw, and Marlon Moraes. Holy shit, is that one hell of a run. Granted, I thought Mighty Mouse won that fight but that is besides the point. After winning that fight, he went on to TKO a juiced up TJ Dillashaw, an impressive feat even if TJ wasn’t juiced up. Then, he won TJ’s vacated bantamweight belt over Marlon Moraes, TKO’ing him in the third round. That Moraes fight was interesting, Moraes dominated the first 1.5 rounds before gassing out and Cejudo took over and got the finish for the title win. Taking all of those wins into account, we haven’t seen him have to bounce back from a surgery/serious injury before. That is a tough thing to do. And life is always harder as a champion than a challenger.

That brings us to the challenger, Dominick Cruz. Many believe he is the greatest Bantamweight in the history of MMA. He has overcome injuries like no one else in the history of MMA. He beat Mighty Mouse in 2011, didn’t fight again for 3 years, beat Takeya Mizugaki in 2014. Then came back in 2016, and beat TJ Dillashaw and won back his Bantamweight title. Defended it in June 2016 against Urijah Faber, before losing it to Cody Garbrandt in December 2016. He hasn’t fought since that fight against Cody in December 2016. So it’s been 3.5 years since his last fight, and he is coming back to fight Cejudo for the Bantamweight title. Cruz says ring rust isn’t a thing. Everyone knows Cruz has been training, and his job as an analyst means he watches a ton of film. We know he hasn’t left the fight game. Cruz has a decent size advantage over Cejudo. We can’t say for sure, but Cruz hasn’t gassed out in a fight like Moraes did against Cejudo in their title fight. It is so hard to predict this fight since we haven’t seen Cruz since December 2016. Cruz is such a bizarre fighter, his footwork is crazy. He has never been KO/TKO’d, Cejudo has been falling in love with his power. Cejudo’s wrestling will always be there, he did win a gold medal in the Olympics (in case you didn’t know that). Cruz’s amazing footwork makes it hard to take him down though. Cruz is all about angles and making his opponents miss. Cody fought a perfect fight against him. You have to assume Cejudo watched Cody’s fight and has a similar plan. BUT, Cruz hasn’t fought since then so maybe he has fixed holes in his fight game since then. BUT, Cruz hasn’t fought since then so maybe he will be a couple of steps slower and gets caught. This is truly one of the hardest fights to predict.

Dominick Cruz by decision

FRANCIS NGANNOU V. JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK

This is a matchup I wanted to see the second Jairzinho Rozenstruik made Overeem’s face implode. Then Jairzinho actually had the balls to call Francis Ngannou out, and I cackled. My friend I was watching the event with looked at me, and I said, “no motherfucker has the balls to call out Ngannou. This guy shows up in 2019, knocks out 4 guys. Then calls out the baddest motherfucker in the division. I love this guy.” Jairzinho impressed me in his debut win over Junior Albini. He won me over when he beat Allen Crowder in 9 seconds on a jab. The guy is less impressive looking, but better trained kickboxing Francis Ngannou. They are both weak grapplers, but powerful strikers. Unfortunately, this has Ngannou v. Derrick Lewis potential written all over it, but I am optimistically ignoring that possibility. Jairzinho doesn’t strike me (see what I did there) as a guy that will stand and look at a guy for 15 minutes. I know his fight against Overeem wasn’t great and a last second KO got him the win, but Ngannou won’t try to grapple him, and this isn’t a 5 round fight. This is a #1 contender fight, with the winner getting the next title shot, and I am expecting fireworks from these guys. I would be highly shocked if it goes to the judges’ scorecards. I think it is going to come down to who lands first. Francis has the size advantage, so Jairzinho is going to have to get in close and put himself into danger. Jairzinho as a kickboxer has some kicks in his repertoire though, that could give him some tools that Ngannou hasn’t really shown. Maybe Ngannou has added kicks to his game in his time off. This is a tough one to call, as any heavyweight fight is since one punch is all it takes. I like Ngannou’s experience and chances, but by betting standards the line on Jairzinho is too good to pass up.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik by 1st round TKO

JEREMY STEPHENS V. CALVIN KATTAR

When I saw this matchup, I started drooling. Jeremy Stephens has been one of my favorite fighters for a while. He is the mini Cowboy Cerrone, which is funny when you realize they were in the same division for a while, until Cowboy went up to welterweight and Stephens went down to featherweight. They have the most and second most appearances in UFC history. Stephens always puts on entertaining fights. Stephens has the most losses in UFC history. While this matchup has entertainment written all over it, some factors just don’t play into Stephens’ hand, the weight cut went horribly, he missed weight by 4.5 pounds. Something has to have gone wrong, or he didn’t try to keep himself healthy due to coronavirus. Either way, something seems fishy surrounding Stephens’ training camp. Stephens loves a standup fight, and usually goes for the knockout, but usually struggles against quick and technical strikers.

That brings us to Stephens’ opponent, Calvin Kattar. Kattar is pretty much a straight boxer that is very technical and methodical. Unfortunately, he has been too much of a boxer and he gets a little too stationary and it can be dangerous against kickboxers and grapplers. Fortunately for him, Stephens is neither and that plays into his hand for this fight. This should be a standup fight that will be bloody and entertaining. A knockout might happen, I don’t think so though. I think it is going to be a long and entertaining brawl. Fight of the night potential right here. 

Calvin Kattar by decision

GREG HARDY V. YORGAN DE CASTRO

I have no fucking clue why this fight is on the pay-per-view over some of the prelim fights, including my most anticipated fight of the night, Niko Price v. Vicente Luque, but I digress. Heavyweight fights are either entertaining as fuck, or boring as fuck. I’m hoping this one is entertaining as fuck, but I’m trying to temper my expectations. Hardy is huge and an incredible athlete. His last 2 fights were disappointing. Well the Ben Sosoli one was disappointing because of the inhaler, his actual fight was good. He stayed at distance and picked Sosoli apart. Hardy won the first two rounds before using the inhaler, so he had the fight won anyway. But he got a no contest because of the inhaler. Then in his last fight he lost a decision to Alexander Volkov, a fight he took on short notice, and was way above his skill level. Can’t really blame him for that loss. 

This fight is more on his level, going against Yorgan de Castro. Yorgan is making his second appearance in the UFC, coming off a 2 minute KO of highly touted prospect Justin Tafa in October 2019. Yorgan has excellent power and is a good overall striker, including solid leg kicks. He is dangerous and Hardy should not take him lightly. Yorgan does have the ability to stop Hardy if Hardy makes a mistake, something Hardy has done. Hardy has been the only one to beat Hardy so far in his MMA career. That being said, Hardy is the better athlete, has a big size advantage, and trains at the better gym.

Greg Hardy by decision

PRELIMS

ANTHONY PETTIS V. COWBOY CERRONE

This has been a very hard fight to pick. Sentimentally, it is nearly impossible to pick against Cowboy, I’ve said this for the last couple of Cowboy fights, and have gotten them right. I just haven’t seen the same Cowboy since the Al Iaquinta fight. Not to mention, Al Iaquinta, as much as I love him, isn’t on the same level as the elite guys Cowboy has faced. Another thing working against Cowboy here, something I believe that isn’t a fact or anything other than speculation, without a crowd, Cowboy won’t have an adrenaline rush from a stadium full of drunk people screaming his name. It might not mean much, it might be my own musings thinking it’s actually a thing, but Cowboy is a known adrenaline junkie. At UFC Brasilia in March, the first 10 fights went to decision. I think the lack of a crowd played a role. Most of the fights seemed to be glorified sparring sessions, and Cowboy doesn’t spar often. Cowboy has stated his recent losses have lit a spark. That, combined with his wife being pregnant with their second child and quarantine has motivated him to get back into his best fighting form. He has moved his head coach to his ranch so he can train full time for this fight.

This all fails to mention, Anthony Pettis is the former lightweight champion and has a win over Cowboy. But since losing his lightweight championship to Rafael dos Anjos, Pettis is 4-8 and has not looked like Showtime. His last fight was a second round submission loss to Diego Ferreira, not close to the level of competition Cowboy has faced, coincidentally, that fight took place on the same card as Cowboy’s last fight, Cowboy v. Conor in January 2020. 

Cowboy may not have looked good the last couple of fights, Pettis has not looked much better his last couple of years either. This fight is a toss up depending on which fighter shows up. This is a really hard fight to predict, and I am not very confident in my selection, but I think Cowboy has shown flashes of brilliance more recently than Pettis.

Cowboy Cerrone by decision

FABRICIO WERDUM V. ALEXEY OLEYNIK

Battle of 42 year old heavyweights. Very interesting. I love heavyweight fights in the UFC. By that I mean, heavyweights age so weirdly in comparison to every other weight class. These are two of the best grappling heavyweights in UFC history. Both of these guys are extremely dangerous grapplers and it should cancel out and cause a standing battle. In this case, Werdum should have the advantage, I am a little hesitant since he hasn’t fought in over 2 years due to a failed drug test, but Oleynik’s gas tank sucks. 

Fabricio Werdum by decision

CARLA ESPARZA V. MICHELLE WATERSON

A matchup of strawweight women that seem to keep falling short of title shots. Carla Esparza was the first strawweight champion so she’s been there already, but her and Michelle Waterson keep getting within smelling distance of a #1 contender’s fight at least, then losing. I think both of them would be better suited for an atomweight division. For Waterson, I noticed she was so much smaller than Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their fight. Joanna picked her apart and Waterson didn’t have much of a chance to even land a strike without getting hit by several shots. Esparza is even smaller than Waterson. I really never thought much of Esparza. She beat a young, inexperienced Rose Namajunas for the strawweight title. Then lost to Joanna in her first title defense. Carla has beaten all of the fighters she should have, and lost to all of the better fighters she has fought. She’s had a rocky run in the UFC. I guess Waterson hasn’t had much of a better run than Esparza. This is a toss up of veteran strawweight contenders itching for a title fight and they’re both on the outside of the weird situation at the top of the division.

Michelle Waterson by decision

VICENTE LUQUE V. NIKO PRICE

If I could switch any of the fights on the prelims to the PPV, it would be this fight and put the Greg Hardy v. Yorgan de Castro fight on the prelims. This fight has entertainment written all over it. This is like the Jeremy Stephens v. Calvin Kattar fight, except Niko Price has never had a decision in the UFC. The guy has highlight finish after highlight finish. Win or lose, Niko Price is trying to put on a show for the fans. It is something we truly appreciate here on WasserMMA. Niko’s style is throw whatever he can and if it lands, you usually go to sleep. He is coming off of a KO win by upkick. He has a win over Randy Brown by hammerfists from bottom position. Niko just finds ways to knock guys out and it is always fun and entertaining. 

Vicente Luque is another guy that is just violent. His finish rate isn’t as high (by negligible percentage points) as Niko’s but his entertaining fight rate is. Luque came to the UFC from The Ultimate Fighter, and has quietly, fitting since his nickname is “The Silent Assassin”, been one of the better welterweights in the division. He is 10-3 in the UFC, with his 3 losses coming to Michael Graves (his debut, so don’t blame him), Leon Edwards, and Wonderboy Thompson. Leon Edwards and Wonderboy are pretty fucking good so those losses aren’t that bad. He won 4 straight fights before losing to Leon Edwards. After losing to Leon Edwards, he took a short notice fight against Niko Price, and won by second round submission. Then he went on a 6 fight winning streak, before losing a decision to Wonderboy. Now he is about to face Niko in a rematch, another short notice fight. Will he have another win and rebound with another long winning streak?

The first fight saw Niko throw strike after strike at Luque. Luque was able to dodge and counter for the most part until he was able to catch Niko and submit him. I think both guys will try the same strategy. Niko is going to be his aggressive self. He is going to throw the kitchen sink at Luque, and aim for the KO/TKO. Luque is going to stand and trade and try to get a KO/TKO/submission.

Niko Price by 3rd round TKO

CHARLES ROSA V. BRYCE MITCHELL

This is a nice matchup of featherweight prospects. The lovable Arkansas hick, Thug Nasty Bryce Mitchell goes up against Boston Native Charles Rosa. Bryce is going to try to submit Rosa. Everyone knows this. Nine of his 12 wins come by submission. That is a pretty reliable stat. It is his bread and butter. He is coming off a win by Twister, the second twister win in UFC history. It is safe to say that Bryce Mitchell’s grappling game is money. That, and the fact he is willing to call out Ryan Hall. No one wants to fight Ryan Hall because his Jiu Jitsu is so good and it is all he does. Bryce is an aggressive fighter, he will throw with volume and just try to get in close so he can get a hold of Rosa and once he gets a hold of him, he won’t let go.

Rosa isn’t a slouch in the grappling department though. Eight of his twelve wins come by submission. But Rosa has some power, he has 3 KO/TKO wins on his resume. Rosa is coming off an impressive submission win over Manny Bermudez that no one saw coming. I don’t think he has the cardio that Bryce Mitchell has and their grappling skills are both excellent, and that could cancel out. If the grappling cancels out, this will be a standup fight. If that happens, this is Bryce’s fight to lose. If it becomes a grappling match, it is Bryce’s fight to lose. I think Bryce has the advantages in most areas of this fight. If Reebok finally smartened up and made camo shorts for Bryce, there is zero chance Bryce loses.

Bryce Mitchell by decision

RYAN SPANN V. SAM ALVEY

First fight of the night. First bit of real sports we’ve had in nearly two months. This is what we all need. Since they put some really good fights on the prelims, I wish they gave us one of those to open the night, but that is just me nitpicking. This is a matchup of a newcomer in Ryan Spann facing veteran Sam Alvey. I like Alvey, he is a nice guy trying to make a living. But at this point, he is a gatekeeper and that is what this fight is. Spann is trying to put himself on the map, and while Alvey isn’t a big name, he is the first gatekeeper in Spann’s path. Spann trains at Fortis MMA, they are an excellent gym, so you know he is well trained and will be ready to fight. His grappling is solid, 11/17 wins come by submission. But his striking is also solid, and he has a very long reach advantage. Spann is a solid all around fighter and is putting his tools together for a run up the rankings at light heavyweight.

Sam Alvey on the other hand is on the downswing of his career and moving up to light heavyweight might not have been the best move for him. It isn’t a slow and plodding division and he is facing good athletes and they are tougher and stronger than he is. Spann is a tough match up for Alvey. Spann has a long reach advantage and is hungry. He is going to want to go for the kill. Alvey likes to sit and wait for a kill shot. It makes him a boring fighter in his recent fights and I see this fight either ending quickly, or being dragged out. For everyone’s sake, I hope this card gets kicked off right. 

Ryan Spann by 1st round KO

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

VICENTE LUQUE V. NIKO PRICE