Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC 243: Whittaker v. Adesanya

MAIN CARD

ROBERT WHITTAKER V. ISRAEL ADESANYA

The fight that has been highly anticipated for months. Robert Whittaker finally makes his return to unify the Middleweight Title against the Interim Champion Israel Adesanya. This is a great matchup. Israel has received a ton of hype since debuting in the UFC in 2018. He is definitely a big personality. That being said, I don’t think the hype is earned yet. His wins haven’t been over the most impressive talent. Marvin Vettori almost beat him. Brunson was very inconsistent and had not put everything together. Anderson Silva was 100 years old. Kelvin was his toughest opponent and it was a very close fight. If Kelvin didn’t try to go for a takedown after stunning Adesanya, I think Kelvin would have won. Adesanya hasn’t faced anyone as good as the Champion Robert Whittaker.

Robert Whittaker has an impressively high fight IQ and is a better overall fighter than Kelvin. Whittaker has survived two battles against the best middleweight to never win a title, in Yoel Romero. He beat Jacare in the fight before the first Romero fight. He was able to keep both strong grapplers off of him. He was able to survive Romero’s devastating power. Whittaker knows how to not be hit. Adesanya is a great striker, but Whittaker understands MMA striking better and is a better wrestler. I think people have forgotten how good Whittaker really is. I am not saying it is a guaranteed win, but Whittaker is one of the better overall fighters in the UFC and I think he will show that in this fight.

Robert Whittaker by decision

AL IAQUINTA V. DAN HOOKER

I think this has the potential to be one of the most exciting brawls we’ve seen. I love this matchup. After Hooker’s last win, a quick KO over James Vick, I said I wanted to see Raging Al Iaquinta v. Dan Hooker. They are very similar fighters. Both are brawlers with knockout power, they have decent wrestling and big gas tanks. I don’t think either of these guys will be backing away or running. I think this will be a fun fight that has potential to be a bloodbath. Raging Al has 7 KO/TKO’s out of his 14 wins  and has never been KO/TKO’d. Hooker has 10 KO/TKO’s out of 18 wins and has been KO/TKO’d 1 time, against Edson Barboza in December 2018. So these guys have pretty good chins. Both fighters aren’t the most athletic, and neither are pressure fighters. They both show problems with more athletic, pressure fighters. This matchup is so even that it should produce fireworks.

My favorite thing about this fight, Raging Al did not need to take this fight. He is ranked 6th and Hooker is ranked 15th. He could have said win another fight or two then talk to me. But Hooker called him out, and Al said, why the fuck not. You have to love that attitude. He took a fight with Khabib on 2 days notice and survived the entire 5 rounds. So, Dan Hooker can get the biggest win of his career in front of his home crowd. He has to be excited at the prospects of what a win over Raging Al would mean for his career. I think the fans will love this fight. I also think the fans will love Raging Al once the fight ends.

Al Iaquinta by decision

TAI TUIVASA V. SERGEY SPIVAK

Tai Tuivasa is one of the most entertaining people in the UFC. The guy loves to chug beers out of stranger’s shoes after wins. He’s a big hitter in the mold of Mark Hunt, but with a personality. He came into the UFC and rattled off three straight wins. Then the UFC made their typical booking mistake, and put him in a matchup with Junior dos Santos. He was rushed to top competition too quickly and was knocked out by JDS. Tuivasa shouldn’t have been put into that fight. JDS outclassed him easily. Then he dropped a decision to Blagoy Ivanov. 

Tuivasa is going up against Sergey Spivak. Spivak made his UFC debut in May 2019, with a 50 second TKO loss to Walt Harris. So we don’t really know much about him. He definitely has a grappling edge over Tuivasa. I am guessing he’s going to try to make it a dirty fight. Clinching and takedown attempts. He’s going to try to grind Tuivasa and tire him out.

Luckily for Tuivasa, a loss in the heavyweight division isn’t as hard to recover from than other divisions. Heavyweights also seem to have longer careers. Tuivasa seems to have improved his training regiment in hopes of bouncing back. I think he does it.

Tai Tuivasa by 1st round TKO

LUKE JUMEAU V. DHIEGO LIMA

This is a good matchup for Dhiego Lima. Luke Jumeau is a grinder on the feet, but isn’t a pressure fighter or a fast athlete, and doesn’t have the strongest grappling. Lima is athletic and will be faster. Lima also has a solid ground game. If Lima has truly turned the corner and is ready to make a run to the rankings, he will show improvement in his decisions and try to make this a grappling match using his strength against Jumeau’s biggest weakness. But even if it stays on the feet, I think he’s fast enough and a solid counter striker to either catch Jumeau, or out point him.

Dhiego Lima by decision

JUSTIN TAFA V. YORGAN DE CASTRO

This is a matchup of two guys making their debut. Justin Tafa is an Australian prospect that is making his UFC debut in his fourth career fight. Yorgan de Castro is making his UFC debut in his 6th career fight, earning a contract with a TKO by leg kick in Dana White Contender Series in June 2019.. The only reason this is on the main card is because Holly Holm v. Raquel Pennington had to be pulled from the card. UFC taking the heavyweight fight from the prelims to put in this spot is smart. Both of these guys are powerful heavyweights. Tafa will want to put on a show for his home crowd. Tafa is in the Mark Henry Samoan stable, and I think he will keep the home crowd happy.

Justin Tafa by 1st round TKO

PRELIMS

JAKE MATTHEWS V. ROSTEM AKMAN

When I saw Jake Matthews was just 25, my jaw dropped. He debuted 5 years ago. He made his UFC debut at the age of 20. That is crazy. He is 7-4 in the UFC and has an up and down career. UFC wanted him to be the Australian superstar, but he hasn’t put it all together yet. He is coming off a loss that happened after winning 3 straight. His striking has improved, which is good. He is a good grappler, 7 of his 14 wins are by submission. Rostem Akman is making his UFC debut. He is a solid striker but doesn’t have the strongest grappling. I’m looking for Matthews to take this fight to the ground and work towards another submission.

Jake Matthews by 3rd round submission

CALLAN POTTER V. MAKI PITOLO

Callan Potter made his UFC debut in February losing to Jalin Turner by TKO 53 seconds into the first round. He isn’t the most athletic fighter, he is a grinder with decent wrestling. He’s a tough son of a bitch and is a good grappler. Maki Pitolo is making his UFC debut after winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2019, scoring a TKO in 1.5 minutes into the first round. He is a Hawaiian slugger that has some solid power. 

Maki Pitolo by 2nd round TKO

BRAD RIDDELL V. JAMIE MULLARKEY

Both of these guys are making their UFC debut. This is an Australia v. New Zealand matchup to get the crowd going. Riddell has a kickboxing background and will look to keep the fight on the feet in the center of the octagon. Mullarkey is more of a well rounded fighter. He will try to take Riddell out of his comfort zone. There isn’t a ton of info or footage on these two. In these situations, I tend to go with the more well rounded fighter.

Jamie Mullarkey by decision

MEGAN ANDERSON V. ZARA FAIRN DOS SANTOS

Megan Anderson has not lived up to her hype when she signed up to be one of the 3 featherweights. Luckily for her, those losses were due to her shitty grappling skills. Zara Fairn dos Santos is worse than Anderson on the ground. I don’t think this one will hit the mat.

Megan Anderson by decision

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

AL IAQUINTA V. DAN HOOKER