First PPV of the year! Dana decided to jack up the price again so it looks like we have to hit our bets or go into debt. We have one of the biggest title fights of all time with Ngannou vs Gane, one of the smallest title fights of all time with Moreno vs Figgy 3, and then a bunch of random average fights with no implications for the rest of the card. I finally got in the plus column last week in win percentage but my heavy bets fell apart. I will not let that happen again, I thoroughly researched my 2 horse cock locks and see a very small margin for error. I also made sure the heavy bets didn’t have too much juice because when a -180 bet doesn’t hit, that shit feels like a punch in the stomach from Ngannou. Don’t overthink this card, a lot of favorites are going to win in the later fights (except the title tilts). These are pretty lopsided bouts, have to bring out some method of victories to get the odds to be manageable. Also, BetMGM gave me a parlay boost for the card so threw that in on the bottom as well. Enough of my jabbering, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane Heavyweight Championship Bout
Holy shit what a fight Dana has blessed us with. While the beef between the 2 feels a little forced, I still think there is a little bad blood here. Ciryl Gane has shown he is by far and away the most skilled fighter in this weight class. The man weighs 247 and moves like a 205er, has the power to put anyone asleep, and the grappling the rival anyone in the promotion. His biggest issue is that Ngannou’s hand goes boom. Francis showed a ton of improvement in his most recent bout against Stipe, he avoided the takedowns and found his shots without throwing them like a mad man. He has taken the souls of almost every top fighter in the division and has only seen the 3rd round twice in his UFC career. Gane can be winning by points the whole entire fight, and Francis can just land that one shot that puts him in the shadow realm.
Francis Ngannou by 2nd Round TKO +120 1 unit
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Flyweight Championship Bout
This may seem stupid considering how the last fight went, but I think Figgy is still the better fighter. He is the only one in the weight class with true knockout power, has elite grappling (when he doesn’t get caught in a sub), and looked probably the best he ever has on the scale. Moreno got a lucky draw in the first bout, caught Figgy in the second, and now he will meet his demise in the final bout of this trilogy. Sure I may have lost money on the last fight, but that was just so I can get an even better line on this one. It was really a beautiful strategy by Figgy when you think about it. This was nearly a 2 unit play, but couldn’t do it because of the corny trash talk Deiveson was throwing out at the presser, just felt fake which is my only worry in this one.
Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision +155 1 unit
Michel Pereira vs. André Fialho Welterweight Bout
Who the fuck is Andre Fialho? I understand Muslim Salikhov dropped out of their other bout, but then you put Michel up against a no name on the main card of a PPV a week later? Great for Fialho, but it is hard to see the logic for Pereira. The man is probably 2-3 wins away from a title fight and this does not help him get any closer. Best case, he beats up a no name in a fun way and gets a few more fans. Worst case, he loses and has to win another few in a row to get back to where he is now. Whatever, I am done spouting my stupid opinions. Pereira will need to be flashy in this one to move up the rankings at all, so I am expecting flips and a crazy barrage of strikes early to put Andre away.
Michel Pereira by 1st Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) +110 1 unit
Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov Bantamweight Bout
Did we all forget that Cody Stamann isn’t very good? Jimmie Rivera completely neutralized his wrestling and striking which he couldn’t do against pretty much anyone else. Cody is always in great shape, but that is pretty much it. Said is going to get this against the cage, get this on the ground, and eke out a super boring decision that all of us get to watch before Michel does his back flips in the next fight. This is almost like a palate cleanser to get us ready for the actual main card right after. Take Said by Decision and use those earnings to retire.
Said Nurmagomedov by Decision (Prop Line) +110 2 units
Trevin Giles vs. Michael Morales Welterweight Bout
I am one of the biggest Trevin Giles haters there is. Well not because he’s a cop, so he might have bigger haters out there. But this man is just not very good at MMA. I am curious to see if he looks any better at 170 than he did at 185, but the man got pieced up by James Krause, a weight class up and on a days notice (even if the score cards said differently). Morales is a newcomer after winning on the Contender Series, and has quite the taste for knocking people out. If he can keep things standing and get his striking going, he should be able to put this one away easy.
Michael Morales by 2nd round TKO -110 1 unit
Prelims
Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry Bantamweight Bout
Raoni Barcelos by Decision (Prop Line) +120 1 unit
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez Welterweight Bout
Jack Della Maddalena by 1st Round TKO (Prop Line) -135 2 units
Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira Bantamweight Bout
Saimon Oliveira by 2nd Round Submission +195 1 unit
Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdéz Lightweight Bout
Genaro Valdez by 1st Round TKO +170 1 unit
Early Prelims
Silvana Gómez Juárez vs. Vanessa Demopoulos Strawweight Bout
Silvana Gomez Juarez by Decision +120 1 unit
Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Flyweight Bout
Kay Hansen by Decision (Prop Line) +100 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
Parlay:
Well that is all I have for this evening. Sports betting becoming legal in New York has added so much that I am able to do now. Live betting, better parlay odds, more method of victory choices, the possibilities are endless. Make sure to follow along on twitter to see if there are any positions we like later to capitalize on. Stay smart, stick to your units, and gamble responsibly. As always may luck be your lady tonight!