Damn does it feel good to be able to write these picks in back to back weekends again. I am so sorry that I shit on cards for all those weeks in October and November where we were drowning in fights. That’s not to say that I will be bitching and moaning just as much come the next batch of weak cards. This card is actually surprisingly well put together after such a rough event last week. If you were to just plop McGregor Cowboy on top of this one, it would be one of the better PPVs in a long time, especially one without a single title fight. Instead, we are blessed to have a free* fight night with some big names and real talent.
*Only free if you are currently subscribed to ESPN+
We have a main event with 2 of the top fighters in the heavyweight division with the winner probably being next in line for a title shot after the winner of Ngannou vs Rozenstruik (unless it’s Blaydes which I’ll dive into later). We have RDA vs Chiesa which will be very future defining for both men, hard to see either of them being able to prove much if they lose this one. Angela Hill returns to prove that those losses are not indicative of her ability and that she belongs among the top of the strawweights. Later on the card we have Arnold Allen, one of the UKs shining stars, with his toughest test to date. This will be an exciting night of fights with the prelims kicking of at 5pm EST!!!!!
Let’s get into these picks already:
Main Card
Curtis Blaydes vs Junior dos Santos Heavyweight Bout
This is one of the better heavyweight matchups than has been put together that does not include Stipe Miocic, Daniel Cormier or Francis Ngannou. Curtis Blaydes has been a rockstar in the UFC since his arrival. He has 12 wins in his professional career with only 3 having been by decision, although many people call his fighting style boring he still usually keeps things out of the judges hands. His only hiccup in his career has been Francis Ngannou, similar to what Deontay Wilder says, Blaydes had to be perfect for 5 and 3 rounds, Ngannou only had to be perfect for one second. Blaydes is built to go into later rounds and use his wrestling to dominate his opponent until he can win with ground and pound.
Then there is the legendary JDS. Dos Santos has been in the UFC for 12 years now and has constantly been in the top 10. The list of men that have beaten him in the octagon is short and filled with absolute killers. We got Ngannou, Stipe, Alistair Overeem, Cain Valesquez (twice). Of those losses, he has beaten 2 of them in a different bout. He has some of the best striking in this weight class and is a BJJ black belt to boot. He has a hard time against heavy hitters in the past, but it seems that nothing has become a trend. This may be an ill advised pick, but I think he has what it takes to beat Blaydes. He had 3 incredible bouts with Cain Valesquez who is essentially the same style as Blaydes but with better standup. I think if JDS is able to keep things on the feet and stuff the takedowns he can tire Blaydes out and piece him up. Let’s ride with Cigano.
Junior dos Santos by 4th Round TKO +235 1 unit
Rafael dos Anjos vs Michael Chiesa Welterweight Bout
Rafael dos Anjos is one of my favorite fighters in UFC history. The man has been fighting constantly for his whole career and brings the action all of his fans want to see. He has incredible BJJ and is no slouch on the feet. For sure has hit a rough patch as of late going against Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, and Leon Edwards. All in the top 5 of a weight class where he has had a bit of a size disadvantage. He is incredibly hard to finish and will not quit putting pressure until he is dead.
Across him in the octagon will be the Maverick Michael Chiesa. Chiesa has moved up to lightweight, similarly to RDA, to avoid these brutal weight cuts. He has 2 straight wins since moving up, submitting Carlos Condit and dominating Diego Sanchez for 3 rounds. He has looked pretty on point in his move up and hopes to make his name known in this division.
All of that being said, I do not see RDA losing this fight. Maverick has quite a height disadvantage, but I do not think he has the tools to keep RDA down and avoid his weapons. I think it will be a super entertaining fight, unfortunately for the Team Alpha Male product, Dos Nachos is not here to lose this one.
Rafael dos Anjos by Decision -220 2 units
Jordan Espinosa vs Alex Perez Flyweight Bout
Both of these fighters come from a wrestling background and are looking to climb the ranks of a relatively shallow flyweight division (possibly dying division). Jordan Espinosa is coming off a loss to Matt Schnell having accumulated 5 straight wins before that, including a DWCS win to get on the UFC roster. Alex Perez has been pretty great in the last few years with his only loss being to Benavidez, who is fighting for the vacant title later this year. I think Perez has the sharper wrestling and a few better wins, most notably his recent one over Mark De La Rosa. I am locking in on Perez here, although this isn’t a bad time to ride the dog if you so please.
Alex Perez by Decision -257 1 unit
Hannah Cifers vs Angela Hill Strawweight Bout
This is annoying. I hate riding so many favorites but I just have a feeling about this card. Angela Hill is one of my favorite female fighters. She has a great Muay Thai background, and in many of her recent losses has looked liked the better fighter to everyone but the judges. Hannah Cifers is great in her own regard, but I do not think anyone without a strong submission background is beating Hill right now.
Angela Hill by Decision -205 1 unit
Jamahal Hill vs Darko Stosic(not doing all the accents) Light Heavyweight Bout
This one is very interesting. Jamahal has been a killer in his very short career so far. He hasn’t faced much competition, but earned himself a UFC roster spot with a DWCS (becoming more and more of a trend). Darko is another interesting story. He has dropped 2 in a row but his last one was a bit controversial. He would have won the bout if he wasn’t deducted 2 points for ball kicks. He destroyed Kennedy *last name unspellable*’s legs and could’ve taken that fight if he wasn’t also trying to perform an amateur vasectomy. I think Darko will use his experience and tight striking to secure the win of the newcomer this evening.
Darko Stosic by 3rd Round TKO +105 1 unit
Prelims
Bevon Lewis vs Dequan Townsend Middleweight Bout
I really don’t think this one should be close at all. Bevon Lewis should be on another level than Townsend and the odds back that up.
Bevon Lewis by 2nd Round TKO -415 3 units
Arnold Allen vs Nik Lentz Featherweight Bout
Arnold Allen facing his toughest test to date. If he can beat Lentz he proves he is a real threat in this division for the foreseeable future. I think he should be able to take this one as long as he doesn’t get caught and follows his game plan.
Arnold Allen by Decision -267 2 units
Justine Kish vs Lucie Pudilová Flyweight Bout
Justine Kish by Decision +147 1 unit
Montel Jackson vs Felipe Colares Bantamweight Bout
I am going to start this by saying Montel Jackson will probably win this fight. That being said, it is way smarter and more fun to bet on Felipe Colares as such a heavy dog. They both only have one career loss, crazy the line is this big.
Felipe Colares by 2nd Round Submission +480 .5 Units
Sara McMann vs Lina Lansberg Bantamweight Bout
I really like Lina coming off 2 big wins against the 39 year old McMann coming off a bit of a downslide. This could end up being a retirement fight for either lady.
Lina Lansberg by Decision +115 1 unit
Brett Johns vs Tony Gravely Bantamweight Bout
Tony Gravely by 3rd Round TKO -107 1 unit
Herbert Burns vs Nate Landwehr Featherweight Bout
Nate Landwehr by Decision -123 1 unit
I am fighting against the clock here so I will keep my post fight thoughts brief. Let’s win some money and bet some over unders when it feels fun. This will be a fairly unpredictable card with a lot of even matchups, I feel pretty good about these picks but if you see that +165 under 2.5 rounds take that thing, live on the edge, life is too short to bet the over 2.5 rounds. That being said, may luck be your lady tonight.