Jake’s Punch Lines UFC Auckland

Do Kiwis say crikey? Wait do Australians really say crikey? Whatever. Crikey mates we are back for another fight night down under! We have quite an interesting card ahead of us with very few implications in any fight but it’s an early card and gambling is super fun. My picks have been pretty middle of the road in 2020 and I am looking to kick that trend in Oceania. One of the bigger moves I have been enjoying lately is putting big money on the -150 to -180 favorites. For the most part they win, and if you take favorites at any worse odds, those bites hurt a lot more on the upsets.

Now these fights. While there is absolutely nothing sexy going on outside the main bout, there is still some stuff to look out for. In the main we have 2 guys fighting to be like 5th in line for a title shot in the most stacked division in UFC history. In the co main we have a couple of hype trains that were derailed in their last bouts, looking to get back into the win column they were dominating. Ok after that it is a bunch of fights of people trying to get or stay ranked, but who am I to judge. Well this isn’t a PPV so I do not want to make this too wordy.

Here are my picks for UFC Auckland:

SURPRISE BONUS PICK!!!

Was going to put this at the end but fuck it here it is. Fury Wilder 2 is here and that line is super super close. That being said, fuck picking a winner, the over is hitting in this bad boy!

Fury Wilder 2 Over 10.5 Rounds -118 2 units

Main Card

Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker Lightweight Bout

This is freaking brutal, crazy even match-up. I have gone back and forth for a while on this one. Felder has been on an amazing tear, not counting a slip up on a late fill in to fight Mike Perry at welterweight where he still got it to a split decision. He beat Edson Barboza, Brazilian Cowboy, Stevie Ray, and James Vick (almost didn’t bring him up because who doesn’t beat him nowaday). Felder is looking to make his push into the top 5 of the division with a win over Hooker.

Hooker has been on a similarly impressive streak with his only loss in the last 7 since returning to lightweight was to Edson Barboza on a brutal body shot. Hooker’s last win over Al Iaquinta by far is his biggest win of his career and looks like he can be an ultimate competitor at 155, being only 30 years old. So earlier in this blog I mentioned liking the favorite within the mid to high -100 range and this is exactly where Hooker stands. That being said, I think this is way way way too close of a match-up to not take the dog. Felder has looked incredible on the feet in his past few and is lightyears better in the clinch. Only way I see hooker winning is with the finish which I don’t think he will find.

Paul Felder by Decision +125 1 unit

Jimmy Crute vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Light Heavyweight Bout

This is actually a pretty awesome fight. These guys were on the way up (not counting Michal doping) crushing everyone that has come in their way. Crute managed to get caught in a Peruvian Necktie against Cirkunov, Michal got Von Preuxed in his last (he put himself in like the worst position you can against OSP). They both have great standup, but Jimmy is the more rounded fighter here. Michal pushes the pace and probably has a slight standup edge, but I feel like Crute is great value here at even. Plus I can’t get over Michal literally putting his head exactly where OSP needed it for the Von Flue choke, it made absolutely no sense.

Jimmy Crute by 2nd Round Submission EV 1 unit

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Yan Xiaonan Strawweight Bout

Karolina was once a super promising prospect, getting 10 straight wins to start her pro career. Then she hit a wall known as Joanna Champion. She has since lost 5 out of her last 7 fights with none having been particularly close. She is hoping to bounce back into the win column and somehow get ranked with a win over the 11-1 Yan. Yan has been undefeated since joining the UFC in 2017. Her fight with Angela Hill was closer than that Unanimous Decision makes it seem, but otherwise has been very dominant. I do not see Karolina being her first loss in the octagoned circle. I am riding with Yan for sure.

Yan Xiaonan by Decision -275 3 units

Ben Sosoli vs Marcos Rogério de Lima Heavyweight Bout

I almost don’t want to write a blurb for this fight. THIS IS ON A MAIN CARD OF A UFC EVENT. These guys should be early prelims at best. Sosoli is coming off 2 straight NC bouts, Lima has lost every other fight since 2015. This is one of those heavyweight bouts where you are throwing a dart at a board and whoever it lands on wins. I am going to ride with Lima on this one solely because he lost his last which means he is due to win this one.

Marcos Rogério by 3rd Round TKO -155 2 units

Brad Riddell vs Magomed Mustafaev Lightweight Bout

This is one of those fights. Magomed seems like a complete lock at that -150 range just where I love him. Riddell is a great up and coming prospect who is coming off his UFC debut win last fall and he has a long career ahead of him. I do not think he is on the same level as Magomed. Magomed had a long layoff in 2016 after hurting his arm against Kevin Lee, but looked like he hasn’t missed a step since. We gotta ride with the favorite let’s go with the Dagestani Sniper.

Magomed Mustafaev by Decision -150 2 units

Prelims

Kevin Aguilar vs Zubaira Tukhugov Featherweight Bout

Aguilar was poised to be a force in the featherweight division after grabbing a win on DWCS then winning as a late replacement in his UFC debut. Another win under his belt after then he faced Dan Ige, who has proclaimed himself as the hype train destroyer, secured a unanimous decision win over him. No Aguilar is hoping to bounce back and prove that hype wasn’t unfounded. Tukhugov is another Khabib buddy that had an incredibly long layoff before coming back last year to show they still got it (his included a suspension for punching McGregor in the brawl). Before the suspension he lost a split decision to Renato Moicano, then returned to a split draw. This line is super close, but I think Aguilar manages to take control of this bout and edge out a decision. 

Kevin Aguilar by Decision -123 1 unit

Jalin Turner vs Joshua Culibao Lightweight Bout

I haven’t seen much out of Joshua Culibao, but it is really hard to rationalize betting on him as a late replacement moving up a full weight class in his UFC debut. A ton of respect to him for willing to risk his undefeated record like this, but I do not see it working out for him.

Jalin Turner by 2nd Round TKO -220 2 units

Jake Matthews vs Emil Meek Welterweight Bout

I do not know why. But I feel like Emil Meek is going to turn things around in Auckland tonight. Matthews is coming off a win over Rostem Akman but before that got choked out by Rocco Martin. The toughest thing about Matthews’ record (albeit he was only 20 years old) he lost to James Vick which is an almost unforgivable loss nowadays. Emil Meek lost his last 2 by getting just dominated in grappling exchanges. He barely put up a fight against Usman or Fabinski because they took him down at will. While Matthews is a BJJ blackbelt, he doesn’t have that kind of style to be constantly looking for the takedown, nor do I think he would be able to employ it for this bout.

Emil Meek by Decision +177 .5 Unit

Callan Potter vs Kenan Song Welterweight Bout

Kind of cool that both these guys are coming off bouts in their own backyard. Other than that, Kenan Song, or Song Kenan, is the much better fighter in this bout and should take it with relative ease.

Kenan Song 3rd Round TKO -210 2 units

Kai Kara-France vs Tyson Nam Flyweight Bout

Kai Kara-France by Decision -267 2 units

Loma Lookboonme vs Angela Hill Strawweight Bout

Angela Hill by 2nd Round TKO -185 3 units

Priscila Cachoeira vs Shana Dobson Flyweight Bout

Priscila Cachoeira by Decision +165 1 unit

There it is! Fight Night in Auckland is here and it is a lovely early card. Well not lovely in the sense of it being filled with top fighters and we have a ton of title implications, but lovely in the sense that it will be over before the Heavyweight Boxing match of the last 10 years. I think a lot of these fights are going the distance tonight, keep your finger on that over because it is going to be hitting left and right. This is a day that is built for violence, there is also Bellator going on, but that is pretty far on the backburner, they have been putting out a pretty brutal product lately, not in a good way. All of that being said, I’ll let you get to your books to make that cash. May luck be your lady tonight!