Howdy y’all! Wow that sucked to write, I’m so sorry. It is UFC 247! We have 2 title fights coming Saturday night which is 2 more than our last PPV. The P4P GOAT gets to defend his belt and continue his undefeated career if we don’t count that one bullshit loss to USADA. Bones is up against the first athlete he has ever faced according to twitter and Dom Reyes. We have Bullet up against arguably her hardest test in the flyweight division. The guy that was supposed to be Greg Hardy’s first loss is up against Mark Hunt’s protege that got destroyed in his last fight. Bektic and Ige aim to be the people’s main event and work their way into the featherweight contender picture. Then to round out the main card we have the Black Beast coming in to fight the 4 foot tall Ilir Latifi in what should be a hilarious visual.
This is Dana White rewarding us fans for putting together such a shitty PPV and throwing Conor on top thinking that’ll fix it. Unfortunately for this card though, I love most of the favorites. That being said, we can not be scared of the bite. That being said, roughly half of these fights have fairly close lines, no harm in betting 1.5 units to win 1. Of course as always, I am going to lose all of my money on betting overs and unders because I do not learn from my mistakes ever. This should be a fun card and everyone made weight, which is a little cherry on top.
Let’s get this show on the road, here are my picks:
Main Card
Jon Jones vs Dominic Reyes Light Heavyweight Championship
I’ll admit it right now, I am not proud of it, but I am a big Jon Bones Jones fan. He was one of the first fighters I ever liked. I remember a story of him chasing down a mugger while he was in the park and got a woman her purse back. Does that one good deed cancel out all the shitty things he has done since? No. Do I care? Not really. How can people hop on McGregor’s dick for being just as big a douche, but also refused to defend a belt and takes year long breaks without suspensions? Whatever that’s not the point of all this, lets get us to some analysis.
Bones has been in 3, maybe 4 competitive fights as a champion. Even so, only 2 of those could really be argued that it was a somewhat unfair decision. Thiago Santos, and Alexander Gustafsson. That being said, he has destroyed some of the best competition in UFC history. Unfortunately for Jon, apparently no one he has ever fought is an athlete. He has had 14 title fights, and not one of those elite mixed martial artists happens to be an athlete. It is absolutely incredible.
No we get to Dom Reyes. The first athlete Jon Jones has ever faced in his storied career. Reyes was a Division 1 FCS player, a level of athleticism that only few could ever reach. I just don’t understand how Jones could possibly beat a man of such athletic success. Not that he has faced an olympic wrestler, several college all american wrestlers, an actual Division 1 FBS football player, and other slobs that were able to make it to the most elite level of mixed martial arts. Dom is so athletic that his biggest win over Volkan Oezdemir, who looks like football player who has stopped exercising but has stayed slim, was a razor close split decision that most agree was a horrible decision. Otherwise he has beaten 2 great middleweights and OSP (who is a better football player).
Now I might seem biased, but I haven’t seen anything out of Reyes that gives me the impression that he is the one to dethrone jones. Bones is the better fighter, the more experienced fighter, and fuck it I’ll say it, the better athlete. Dom can be great and I am sure when he loses this fight he will work his way back into the title picture, but this aint it chief.
Jon Jones by 5th Round TKO -460 3 units (over 2.5 rounds -163???? Hammer that)
Valentina Shevchenko vs Katlyn Chookagian Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko is the most dominant champion of her weight class I have seen outside of Mighty Mouse. She has utterly destroyed everyone that has come her way. She almost beat Amanda Nuñes at 135 and since then, Joanna is the only person that really put up a fight. I love Bullet, watching her is mesmerizing, it’s almost like she is dancing in the octagon just waiting for her opponent to show a weakness that she can exploit. Her KO of Jessica Eye was one of the most beautiful moments that has ever graced the octagoned circle.
Katlyn Chookagian is arguably the biggest threat that Valentina has faced yet at flyweight. Her only loss in the weight class was a close split decision loss to Jessica Eye. She is most definitely not as entertaining to watch as Bullet who has only let 6 of her 18 wins go to the judges (Katlyn has only finished 3 fights), but she knows how to win a bout. Normally, when someone is this big of an underdog I like to take them for fun, or as I say “to be on the right side of history” this is not one of those times. I think this fight won’t even be very competitive. Katlyn is the bigger fighter, but Valentina is too fast and strong to let this one slip away.
Valentina Shevchenko by 3rd Round TKO -1092 5 units (that’s how confident I am)
Juan Adams vs Justin Tafa Heavyweight Bout
This fight gets a little more interesting. No one knows much about Justin Tafa. He is supposed to be Mark Hunt’s protege with crazy knockout power and just being a fat striker from Oceania and having a bunch of tribal tattoos. He was in a slug fest with Yorgan de Castro which was a whoever lands first wins sorta bout. It was hard to really judge how good he is from that fight, but very few guys get into the UFC with only 3 fights under their belt.
Juan Adams had a great entrance into the UFC with a big 3rd round TKO on DWCS. His debut was not as spectacular getting out pointed by Bhullar, then getting KOd in 45 seconds by Greg “The Human Piece of Garbage” Hardy. He needs a bounce back fight to prove he belongs in this promotion. I hate myself for this but I am going with the favorite again. I think Juan’s size and ground game will give him the edge in this bout against a man 5 inches shorter. Tafa should spend more time outside the UFC in smaller banners to get more experience, the pressure under these lights is too much for him.
Juan Adams 1st Round TKO -250 2 units
Mirsad Bektić vs Dan Ige Featherweight Bout
This is the best fight of the evening and there is nothing you can do to convince me otherwise. Mirsad was one of the top prospects coming into the UFC in 2014. He holds an impressive record of 13-2 with a notable split decision win over Ricardo Lamas. Mirsad has quite the finishing acumen, with 9 of his 13 pro wins not making it the distance. His standup is stellar, and his grappling is no joke either having 3 submission wins.
Dan Ige is a DWCS alum and has earned himself a little reputation of crushing the hype. His wins over Danny Henry and Kevin Aguilar were pretty notable as he was seen to just be a stepping stone to them. This is a super close matchup between 2 young studs that are looking to climb the featherweight ranks. It is super tough but I am going to ride with Ige here. If he is able to survive the early barrage and take this thing to the ground, he should be able to dominate and gas Mirsad out. Let’s lock this one in for Ige.
Dan Ige by Decision EV 1 unit
Derrick Lewis vs Ilir Latifi Heavyweight Bout
I think this fight is so fucking funny I really don’t know why. Just seeing how undersized Ilir was at light heavyweight, now he is back to heavyweight for god knows why and he is 246.5 pounds! He is 5’10 247 pounds, Derrick Lewis is 6’5 262. This fight should not be close. That being said, Derrick Lewis is the Cowboy of the heavyweight division, just when you think he is going to be unstoppable, he gets utterly destroyed by Mark Hunt, or Daniel Cormier, or Junior dos Santos. He is coming off an ugly split decision win over Blagoy Ivanov and is looking to prove he is not washed up (he is so Cowboy its crazy).
Ilir is coming of 2 straight lhw losses and has decided that the weight cut is the reason, even though both guys dominated him with their size. You could’ve told me Ilir was 42 and I would believe you, he has been around so long without having a title shot it’s crazy. I always liked the guy but he just needs to be at 185 not 205+. I am riding with the Black Beast on this one, his balls gonna be real hot.
Derrick Lewis by 3rd Round TKO -227 2 units
Prelims
Trevin Giles vs James Krause Middleweight Bout
Well I had to update this pick with Arroyo dropping out, really muddles things up. My book isn’t even offering this fight. James Krause is the better fighter in this matchup, that is why he is somehow the favorite on 24 hours notice. That being said, he did not have a camp, he had no time to prepare, and he is not normally a middleweight. For the sake of my fandom, I want Krause to win this, it would be a great story and can convince people to fight closer to their natural weight. Unfortunately, this line is way too good to not take Giles, who has been preparing for a fight for months now and has been fighting middleweight competition or bigger his whole career. Lock in Giles.
Trevin Giles by Decision +115 1 unit
Alex Morono vs Kalinn Williams Welterweight Bout
I really really really want to rationalize myself into picking Kalinn Williams here. He only has one loss, late fill ins have had some success in the past, Morono’s last few wins haven’t been over anything spectacular, and so on and so on. But unfortunately I cannot. Max Griffin who was Morono’s last win is leaps and bounds better than anyone Kalinn has ever seen. Kalinn has only had 17 days to get ready for the biggest fight of his career and I do not believe that’s nearly enough time. Lock in Morono.
Alex Morono by 2nd Round TKO -330 3 units
Lauren Murphy vs Andrea Lee Flyweight Bout
This is a pretty crucial fight for the flyweight division. This weight class is incredibly shallow and it can take just a few wins in order to find yourself in the title picture. Andrea Lee was poised to be right in the thick of it before dropping a split decision to Calderwood. Lauren Murphy has probably the most impressive losses in the whole weight class. Everyone she has lost to, is a top contender or was a title challenger. I don’t see this fight as being as uneven as the line seems. That being said, I am going to ride with Murphy on this one, Lee tried to defend her piece of shit exes swastika before it turned out he is a bad dude and beat her.
Lauren Murphy by Decision +257 1 unit
Miles Johns vs Mario Bautista Bantamweight Bout
I haven’t seen too much from these 2 guys but from what I have and their notable wins, I think Miles takes this one. Should be a close entertaining bout, but I think Miles edges out Mario.
Miles Johns by Decision -140 1 unit
Early Prelims
Journey Newson vs Domingo Pilarte Bantamweight Bout
Journey Newson by 3rd Round Submission +105 1 unit
Andrew Ewell vs Jonathan Martinez Bantamweight Bout
Jonathan Martinez by Decision EV 1 unit
Austin Lingo vs Youseff Zalal Featherweight Bout
Austin Lingo by 2nd Round TKO -215 1 unit
That wraps up UFC 247’s picks. I am so freaking excited for this card I can barely contain myself. We have till April till we go through another fightless weekend, now we need to make sure we don’t take this violence for granted. I think we have a good opportunity to make some money here, I like these picks a lot and this will be a huge bounce back week for me. I have pretty much stopped gambling on all other sports in order to continue my MMA degeneracy, and you know what? I am ready to prove that this was a good decision. Look out for tweets with my favorite over under bets throughout the night. As always, may luck be your lady tonight.