G’day mates, it’s time for another UFC PPV event with arguably the biggest fight in Australian history, minus when that dude punched a kangaroo to save his dog. We have Bobby Knuckles vs the Last Stylebender duking it out to decide who is the undisputed Middleweight Champion of the World. I am so happy this fight is finally happening, I feel like I have been waiting for it since Izzy joined the UFC (Vettori almost delayed this with an incredible juiced up performance). We have one of Long Island’s finest coming up against some street walker from down under. Those 2 fights alone should make for enough violence to satisfy my palate till next week. On top of that we will probably see a bunch of really cool Hakas, which always get the blood pumping.
I feel like this is the card where we get a ton of finishes. I can feel it in my bones. I have been seeing way too many decisions lately, and if we are going to turn it around, why not do it in a country where people spit into beer filled shoes and chug them for sport. That being said let’s hammer some unders tonight and really just set ourselves up for disappointment. I’ve said it before and I will say it again, there is no more fun sports bet than O/U on MMA bouts.You find me a 2 and a half under with a guy that has ever finished a fight before that mark I am going to take it and sweat till I see the man in black wave his arms to end the fight.
I don’t want to take up any more of your time with my debilitating addiction, here are my picks for the evening:
Main Card
Robert Whittaker vs Israel Adesanya Middleweight Title Bout
He’s back! It is a few hours before this card has started and Robert “Forrest” Whittaker has not had to pull out from this fight with an injury! This man is one of my favorite fighters on the whole roster, but he also has the most freak injuries that ruin so many perfect fight opportunities to cement himself as one of the greats. He had some interesting comments this week on how long he needed to recover after his wars with Romero, saying that he doesn’t feel that Izzy took enough time off after going to battle with Kelvin. Whittaker has a chin like no other taking some of the most brutal shots I have seen and staying alive to win by decision.
Izzy is an unbelievable striker. He might have the most unique and hard to figure out standup in the weight class if not the whole UFC. He comes from a very successful kickboxing background with 75-5 losses (these kickboxing records always look like bullshit so I am not sure how much gravity they hold). He has been undefeated as an MMA fighter with a huge win over Kelvin Gastelum in what might have been the fight of the decade.
I see this fight going very similarly to Holloway Poirier 2. Adesanya will be able to land as much as Whittaker if not even a little more, but Whittaker will just have more power and juice behind his to sway the judges. Seeing the murderers row that Bobby went through (really just Romero twice and Jacare) compared to what Izzy went through, I just don’t think they compare. Izzy destroyed Brunson but at this point that is pretty much just a top 7 initiation for Middleweights. Bobby Knuckles takes this one, put all your money on it. Not really but put some that wouldn’t hurt your current financial situation.
Robert Whittaker by 5th Round TKO -105 2 units
Al Iaquinta vs Dan Hooker Lightweight Bout
This is a really fun matchup. 2 of the great strikers in this Lightweight division that have not been able to get over the hump. Hooker has a pretty big reach advantage over Ragin Al coming in to this fight and will have to use it in order to win. He is coming off of a thrashing of James Vick but that doesn’t hold nearly as much weight as it used to. When you look at Hooker’s previous wins nothing is really all that sexy with the exception of Gilbert Burns who looks way better at 170 than he did at 155. Ragin Al holds 2 wins over Kevin Lee, a win over Jorge Masvidal, and managed to make it to the judges against Cowboy and Khabib which people have had a hard time doing as of late. I think we are going to get some fireworks here and I am excited to witness, but Iaquinta takes this one. He is a better boxer and will be able to work inside to counter his reach disadvantage.
Al Iaquinta by Decision +130 1 unit
Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Spivak Heavyweight Bout
I think I may be more excited to see the Haka during Tai’s walkout than I am this fight. That isn’t saying anything negative about this bout, just how fucking much I love the Haka. This fight will most likely not make it out of the first, and if it does, I would be willing to bet my life it does not make it to the third. Sergey has only seen one 2nd round in his whole career. His most recent showing had him getting obliterated by Walt Harris in the first round. Tai has been on a two fight skid against a couple of tough opponents. I don’t think Tai lets his second shot at a UFC win in Australia slip through his fingers, give him this fight by first round TKO.
Tai Tuivasa by 1st Round TKO -385 3 units
Luke Jumeau vs Dhiego Lima Welterweight Bout
I’m feeling a lot of success with Oceania on this card, feel like the crowd will be electric and it will motivate these guys to perform on another level. I think these guys are really close in ability with Jumeau having maybe a little more to prove in terms of his competitiveness. That being said, I think Jumeau is going to be able to edge out a narrow decision in this one, I am excited for him to make a name for himself on a PPV and hopefully have a good showing.
Luke Jumeau by Decision +120 1 unit
Justin Tafa vs Yorgan De Castro Heavyweight Bout
We get to see Mark Hunt’s star pupil in the octagon go up against DWCS alumnus Yorgan De Castro in what should make for another big finish on this PPV. I saw an interesting post on twitter mentioning that Castro is from 10 time zones away and only got to Melbourne 5 days before the fight. With these guys both having crazy knockout power and small resumes in front of them I am putting a ton of weight on this and saying the jet lag is what does him in.
Justin Tafa by 2nd Round TKO -125 1 unit
Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington Bantamweight Bout
This weight class sucks. I hate to say it, I love the flyweight and strawweight female fights but bantamweight and featherweight just aren’t providing enough for me to stay interested. I hate to say it’s because they are owned by arguably the most dominant fighter in UFC history but that is absolutely the reason. I don’t see anyone available that could possibly even pose a threat to Nunes at either weight class. That being said I know Holly won a close split decision in their first go around but I think she is on her way out while Raquel is still at her prime. The fight goes the other way this go, father time is a real cunt.
Raquel Pennington by Decision +174 1 unit
Prelims
Jake Matthews vs Rostem Akman Welterweight Bout
A good matchup be a fairly new guy to the UFC in Akman vs the 5 year vet Matthews. Matthews has shown flashes of some real talent but keeps losing to the gatekeepers, making himself a gatekeeper in doing that. Akman lost his UFC debut by decision in the beginning of the summer against another dude with a super russian name. I am not quite sure why Akman is such a big underdog, but I love it. I am riding the Russian name wagon in this one since I didn’t against Tai. Book it Rostem Akman wins this fight.
Rostem Akman by 2nd Round TKO +300 1 unit
Callan Potter vs Maki Pitolo Welterweight Bout
I want to. I really want to. But I cannot ride with the Australian in this bout. Maki had a great DWCS debut and seems like the much more talented fighter coming into this bout. Callan didn’t look too great in his UFC debut and has lost 2 of his last 3 bouts. Amazing for Potter to have been able to be put on this card and fight in front of his countrymen, but he doesn’t have what it takes to win this one.
Maki Pitolo by 3rd Round TKO -350 2 units
Brad Riddell vs Jamie Mullarkey Lightweight Bout
I am going to be blunt. Not sure how Jamie Mullarkey got onto the UFC roster for this one. Not insulting his ability, but I do not think I have ever seen a fighter get a UFC chance after 2 straight losses outside of the promotion (ok one of the losses was to Volkanovski, but still). Riddell does not have nearly the same amount of experience as Mullarkey who also happens to be 3 years younger. This is such an incredibly tough decision. I started this paragraph so mean against Mullarkey. It is about to get a bit nicer I am taking Mullarkey, his has more grappling experience, he has been doing it longer, and with everything else being that close, always bet on the dog.
Jamie Mullarkey by 2nd Round Submission +145 1 unit
Megan Anderson vs Zara Fairn dos Santos Featherweight Bout
My Na’vi princess is back with Megan (pronounced Megan) Anderson coming up against Zara Fairn dos Santos in this featherweight bout. I was shitting on this weight class a bit earlier. To add to my point, there are no fucking rankings for featherweight because professional female athletes usually don’t get this big. Megan though is 6’0 and there is no way she could fight any lighter than she does. With Zara at 5’10 she most likely can’t cut much more weight than she already does. Megan had a lot of good quotes about how she worked to get her mind right for this fight, she was on the verge of retirement and sought help and seems to be in a much better place now. I think she puts it all back together in this one, and shows the potential she has always had in this sport. (I hope she sees this)
Megan Anderson by Decision -525 3 units
Early Prelims
Nadia Kassem vs Ji Yeon Kim Flyweight Bout
Nadia Kassem by Decision +140 1 unit
Khalid Taha vs Bruno Silva Bantamweight Bout
Khalid Taha by 2nd Round TKO -235 2 units
Well folks that is it for this evening of fights. I thought last week was my go at the perfect picks, but there was some bullshit in the Giga fight that threw everyone out of whack. This is clearly the perfect picks card. To hammer it in even further I will be watching at an Outback Steakhouse with a boomerang in hand (mostly to defend myself incase I see Colby Covington). I am ready to throw some shrimp on the barbie, and maybe even be able to afford a real steakhouse when this card finishes up. Hope you all take my advice to heart and make the right moves on your bets and remember, if you have a really good feeling about someone in a particular fight, do not add an O/U bet with it because it will only break your heart. I am signing off, may luck be your lady tonight.