(Please do not fault me for misspelt names, it’s like they threw scrabble letters on the floor to come up with these)
Assalamualaikum fight fins, we are less than 24 hours away from the Main Event of one of the biggest cards of the year. The lightweight championship will be unified probably for like a month before someone gets suspended or a serious injury before someone has to fight for the interim belt on New Years but why be negative about this. We get to watch arguably the most dominant fighter in UFC history defend his belt against a fan favorite who is one of many in recent years to elevate their game to another level after moving up in weight. I will always get excited for the guys who decided the weight cut was too much, and move up to concentrate more on improving.
Assalamualaikum fight fins, we are less than 24 hours away from the Main Event of one of the biggest cards of the year. The lightweight championship will be unified probably for like a month before someone gets suspended or a serious injury before someone has to fight for the interim belt on New Years but why be negative about this. We get to watch arguably the most dominant fighter in UFC history defend his belt against a fan favorite who is one of many in recent years to elevate their game to another level after moving up in weight. I will always get excited for the guys who decided the weight cut was too much, and move up to concentrate more on improving.
Outside of that, we get to see the entire Dagestani mafia (minus Zabit) fight. Every barber is Abu Dhabi has their number 4 guard on their trimmers ready for these fellas to get their pre-fight cuts. Looking at the fights makes me feel like I am about to watch a PFL card with how many hard to pronounce russian names there are. I have a feeling we won’t see too many finishes on this card because there are so many proficient sambo/wrestling guys throughout, but I don’t expect to see too much dancing, these guys engage early and put on dominant performances for the audience and their bank accounts. The fight that seems out of place on this whole card is the Felder vs Barboza rematch that should be fireworks from the get go.
Enough foreplay, let’s get into these picks and make that dough:
Main Card
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Dustin Poirier Lightweight Championship Bout
Finally, Khabib is back in the octagon after his scuffle with the Irish. There is no fighter I have watched in the UFC be as dominant over their opponents this horrible haircutted man. GSP would be the next closest, but I’ve seen GSP lose rounds, only time Khabib did that was when he was just making Conor tired and took barely any damage. He will drag you to the ground, he will suffocate you, and as the disgraced russian boxer Ivan Drago once said “I will break you”, he will break you. A few years ago things were rocky with him, having a hard time making weight and battling a few injuries, but that is no more. Only thing in Khabib’s way now is just suspensions for trying to kill Dillon Danis.
Khabib is up against the Diamond Dustin Poirier. This man has been tearing through the biggest names in the lightweight division leading up to his showdown against Max Holloway to earn an interim lightweight belt. I’ll go on record saying that interim belts are a crock of shit, but Dustin absolutely deserves recognition for the list of killers he’s taken down to get here. Alvarez, Pettis, Gaethje, Holloway, and Joseph Duffy (the first man to beat Conor, don’t know why I put him last but by MMA math Poirier would win the Conor rematch). He is one of the best boxers in the weight class and is no jiu jitsu slouch, owning a black belt himself.
This fight pretty much all depends on if Poirier is able to stay on his feet. That’s it. The only way he can possibly win. He won’t be able to pull a submission from his back, or transition to the top, or really do anything other than get smothered and destroyed if he gets taken down. If Poirier keeps it on the feet, he can pick Khabib apart. He has great cardio, incredibly accurate striking, a good enough takedown defense to not be perpetually terrified of it coming, and a very clean fade. I for one, do not want to be on the wrong side of history for this one and am picking Dustin Poirier to win this fight. Oh cool you picked Khabib to win? That must have been a very tough decision being -1148509274 to win, takes a lot of balls dude. No fuck that lets go Poirier, bring the real belt home and win us that sweet sweet mulah.
(Editor’s note, Khabib is only -400 which is not the biggest favorite on the card, but would not have made for as compelling of a sentiment.)
Dustin Poirier by 4th Round TKO +300 1 unit
Edson Barboza vs Paul Felder Lightweight Bout
Oh boy is this going to be a fun one. The first match was legendary in its own right, this one should be even more compelling. Barboza was set to face Anthony Pettis 4 years ago. Pettis got hurt so Miles Jury stepped in, then Jury got hurt so Felder came in as a late replacement. The fight went the distance with Barboza taking the decision. Barboza has had a Rocky run since with a 4-4 record losing to anyone that would give him that extra boost into title fight talks. Felder on the other hand has been 6-3 since that fight with a split decision loss at welterweight and a controversial split decision at lightweight. Felder now has a full camp, more experience, and a way bigger fanbase. I find it hard to see Felder losing this one, but I think both guys take home a FOTN check to help soften all of the damage they are about to take.
Paul Felder by Decision +125 1 unit
Islam Makhachev vs Davi Ramos Lightweight Bout
The next man in the Nurmagomedov crew is up to bat against a BJJ expert. These are the matchups we love to see going back to the UFC 1 days of 2 different martial arts competing against each other in their truest form. Sambo vs Jiu Jitsu. Islam has only 1 loss on his record, he got caught, which I honestly thinks help a fighter. You get that one loss out of the way, you know what it’s like to get knocked out, now you can concentrate on getting better without having to worry about it. Davi has a couple losses on his belt from some known names in Sergio Moraes and David Rickels. This should make for an awesome grappling battle, but I am giving the edge to Islam. The man is a force on the ground and we have seen BJJ guys have trouble with the Sambo fighters for years now.
Islam Makhachev by Decision -221 2 units
Curtis Blaydes vs Shamil Abdurakhimov Heavyweight Bout
This fight isn’t as hard to pick for me. Curtis Blaydes is an incredible fighter. Arguably the 4th best heavyweight in the world. Shamil is a very good fighter too, but he is not on the same level as Blaydes at all. Shamil will have the crowd behind him most likely, but his wins pale in comparison to who Blaydes has taken out. It is tough to say how Blaydes would do against Stipe or Cormier because he can’t get past the terrifying hands of Ngannou, but his wrestling could make the case for potential victories. I won’t spend too much time here, I’m locking in Razor Blaydes.
Curtis Blaydes by 2nd Round TKO -285 3 units
Maribek Taisumov vs Carlos Diego Ferreira Lightweight Bout
These guys hate making weight, but they did it this time! This is a fight I have been flip flopping on for a while. Maribek is fucking dangerous, he was riding a 5 fight TKO/KO streak until he won a decision against Desmond Green in his last bout. Don’t let the name fool you, he isn’t one of these Sambo guys, he likes to exchange and beat the crap out of you. Ferreira is a phenomenal BJJ fighter with only 2 losses, one of them being to the man of the 6 hours, Dustin Poirier. He doesn’t exchange on the feet all that much but he will ground and pound you into a pulp given the opportunity. If you want to take some dogs with me on this card, this is a smart fight to do it in, lets ride with Ferreira. His BJJ will be a nuisance for Maribek, it’ll slow him down and make him more weary to press forward.
Carlos Diego Ferreira by 3rd Round TKO +234 1 unit
Prelims
Joanne Calderwood vs Andrea Lee Flyweight Bout
This is a fun matchup that could lead to a Flyweight title shot. Joanne lost a pretty one sided battle to Chookigian in her last fight after riding a 2 fight win streak. She has looked great in her wins and horrible in her losses. That is a stupid obvious statement but it’s true, she is either over matched or obviously the better fighter in there. Andrea Lee on the other hand has been outstanding in her 7 fight winning streak, 3 of them being UFC wins. She takes this fight with relative ease even though she for some reason thought dating someone with a swastika tattoo was a good idea. L’Chaim!
Andrea Lee by Decision -165 2 units
Zubaira Tukhogov vs Lerone Murphy Featherweight Bout
Welcome to the biggest favorite of the night. Murphy is an extremely late fill in fight and a newcomer to the UFC, but in my opinion the better fighter. Tukhogov hasn’t fought in 3 years since a loss to Renato Moicano. On the last PPV the biggest underdog won his match, and I am feeling like it will happen again. Zubaira is coming out of AKA but he didn’t have the opportunity to train for Murphy and I think that will be his downfall.
Lerone Murphy by Decision +400 1 unit
Liana Jojua vs Sara Moras Bantamweight Bout
We have another first time UFC fighter in Liana Jojua. She is 7-2 riding a 5 fight win streak in her previous promotions. Sara Moras is riding a 3 fight losing streak and is 5-5 in her pro career. I don’t think her luck changes tomorrow against Jojua unfortunately. Jojua will welcome herself in to the UFC in a big way.
Liana Jojua by 2nd Round Submission -215 2 units
Ottman Azaitar vs Teemu Packalen Lightweight Bout
We are drowning in UFC newcomers up in this bitch. Ottman Azaitar is an undefeated prospect and is hella scary. Sorry for saying hella, this has been a long blog. The man is 11-0 with 11 finishes. On the other side of the Octagon is Packalen who is 8-2 with all of his wins coming by finish as well. His most recent loss is to the Bone Collector who I have always loved to watch but is not the greatest fighter. I think Teemu gets overwhelmed by Ottman who immediately makes himself known to the UFC fans with a devastating finish in his first fight.
Ottman Azaitar by 2nd Round TKO -305 3 units
Early Prelims
Belal Muhammad vs Takashi Sato Welterweight Bout
Belal Muhammed by Decision -244 1 unit
Nordine Taleb vs Muslim Salikhob Welterweight Bout
Muslim Salkhib by 1st Round TKO -120 1 unit
Omari Akhmedov vs Zak Cummings MIddleweight Bout
Zak Cummings by Decision +167 1 unit
Don Madge vs Fares Ziam Lightweight Bout
Don Madge by 3rd Round TKO -135 1 unit
That wraps up this long, long card that thankfully is airing in the middle of the day (Sorry West Coast fans). I have been giddy for this title fight for so long it is hard to come to terms with reality that it’s already here. I really don’t know if I will be able to contain myself if Poirier wins. I will be able to collect from my bookie which would be a cool thing to experience, especially now that football is back to drain my bank account. I have a good feeling about these picks, the China card didn’t go well but fuck that card, it was bogus. No one was even able to watch, in my mind it didn’t really even happen. That being said, let’s lock these picks and get ready for our steak dinner next week from our earnings. May luck be your lady tomorrow.