Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Rio Rancho

MAIN CARD

COREY ANDERSON V. JAN BLACHOWICZ

It’s the rematch that people weren’t dying to see, but the rematch necessary to find Jon Jones next opponent. Corey Anderson is riding a 4 fight win streak against Patrick Cummins, Glover Teixeira, Ilir Latifi, and Johnny Walker. His win over Johnny Walker was an impressive first round TKO that crushed the Johnny Walker hype train. Anderson trains with Frankie Edgar and fights like him. High volume striking and strong wrestling. It seems he’s finally put it all together. He’s looked very good and his confidence is through the roof. And impressive win here should give him a shot at Jones. 

Jan Blachowicz is on a 2 fight win streak, a great knockout over former middleweight champion and light heavyweight debuting Luke Rockhold. Then his last fight was an uninspired and boring win over Jacare Souza, another middleweight fighting up a weight class. He was on a hot streak before running into Thiago Santos. Blachowicz was very inconsistent in the beginning of his career. He seemed to put it all together after losing to Patrick Cummins. He wants a title shot, and a win here should get it for him. 

The first fight came down to Anderson’s wrestling. He was able to control and grind Blachowicz for the win. Blachowicz’s takedown defense has greatly improved. I think this fight will come down to Anderson’s wrestling again. 

Corey Anderson by 4th round TKO

DIEGO SANCHEZ V. MICHEL PEREIRA

I hate predicting Diego Sanchez fights, he is my ride or die favorite fighter in the entirety of my UFC fandom. The first season of The Ultimate Fighter got me hooked on the UFC, and Diego’s craziness won me over. Sanchez has been in the UFC forever and has fought some of the best. There is no doubting his toughness and ability to take punishment. He has fought at featherweight, lightweight, welterweight and middleweight, which was the weight class of TUF season 1. It’s pretty incredible that he has had some success at that many weight classes. Diego’s wrestling is very good, he has never been submitted in more than 40 professional fights, and his striking is pretty good as he has 10 TKO wins. Before his last fight, a decision loss to Michael Chiesa, Diego left his longtime gym JacksonWink due to lack of attention from the coaches. He joined up with some weird guru guy, which surprised us all. Diego probably won’t  make a run for the title, but he is a good gatekeeper to have to pass to move up the division ladder. He will be fighting in front of a home crowd, I think he still trains in New Mexico, but either way he was a JacksonWink guy for a while and will have a decent size fan base in the crowd, so that might get him going and put him back in the win column.

Diego is going up against Michel Pereira, who is 1-1 in the UFC. Pereira got on people’s radar after videos of him doing flips in the cage during a fight went viral. He brought his flipping game with him to the UFC, and he scored a first round flying knee KO of Danny Roberts in his UFC debut. He followed that up with a very disappointing loss to Tristan Connelly. Pereira’s opponent dropped out 5 days before the fight, and the UFC called up Canadian local, fight was in Canada, Tristan Connelly, a lightweight, to fight Pereira. Connelly accepted. Pereira missed weight, then lost the fight. Connelly grinded out the win with a gritty performance. Pereira did his flips and fancy striking, even landing a couple, but was completely gassed out by the second round.

If I learned anything from the cartoon, Hey Arnold!, it’s that you never fight a crazy person. Diego Sanchez is a crazy person. Pereira is going to have his hands full with this one. Granted, Pereira needs to make weight first, Diego said he wouldn’t fight him if he misses weight. So, let’s pretend Pereira makes weight. I think the high altitude, coupled with the weak cardio, will hurt Pereira’s chances in this fight. If Diego makes it out of the first round, I think it’s his fight to lose.

Diego Sanchez by decision

MONTANA DE LA ROSA V. MARIA ROMERO BORELLA

Montana de La Rosa is coming off a loss to Andrea Lee. It was a tough loss, but Montana showed a lot of heart and never gave up. She just couldn’t get a takedown and use her superior wrestling. Montana is one of the best wrestlers in the division. If she can improve her striking, she can be a force of nature in this division. 

Maria Romero Borella has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC. I think she is taking this on short notice. She is decent, but I don’t think she is at the level of Montana De La Rosa. 

Montana De La Rosa by 1st round submission

BROK WEAVER V. RODRIGO VARGAS

Brok Weaver is making his UFC debut. He won a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Weaver is a well rounded fighter, he has good standup, good clinchwork, and his ground work isn’t too shabby either. He is an action fighter, he will keep moving forward and his style is very aggressive. He is going up against Rodrigo Vargas, who is making his second trip to the octagon. He lost to Alex da Silva Coelho in his debut in August 2019. He also has an aggressive style, which is probably why this fight made the main card. Vargas is well rounded, but he is older and Weaver is better than him at their shared strengths. This should be an entertaining scrap.

Brok Weaver by 3rd round TKO

ROGERIO BONTORIN V. RAY BORG

Ray Borg is the most unlucky person in UFC history. After losing to Mighty Mouse, he had a string of bad luck that was impressively bad. Borg has had issues making weight. It seemed like he didn’t take it too seriously. He moved up to bantamweight, missed weight too and moved back to flyweight. He has looked alright in his return in 2019. His wrestling and scrambling is quite good. If he is on, he can be dominant and impose his will. Flyweight is in a weird spot, and a win here gives him 2 in a row. Another win after that could get him close to a title shot. 

Rogerio Bontorin is 2-0 in the UFC. He is coming off a win against Raulian Paiva, it was a TKO due to a cut. He’s also a strong wrestler and grappler. His scrambling game is good too. He matches up well with Borg. I think Bontorin’s standup game is better and separates them in this matchup. 

Rogerio Bontorin by decision

LANDO VANNATA V. YANCY MEDEIROS

This has fight of the night written all over it. Both of these guys love to stand and trade and are prone to bloody brawls. Medeiros is the more experienced fighter. Medeiros splits his training time between Max Holloway’s Hawaiian team and Nate Diaz’s Stockton team. This means he has great cardio and throws an insane amount of strikes in his fights. He is 6-6 in the UFC, and seems to be a gatekeeper to the lightweight rankings. He is coming off 2 TKO losses, one in February 2018 to Cowboy Cerrone, and the other in January 2019 to Gregor Gillespie. He is coming off a one year lay off, which is plenty of time to recover from a TKO, but the last time he took a year off following a TKO loss, he got TKO’d again. He did have 3 consecutive wins, all finishes, before the Cowboy fight, but his last win was in December 2017 over Fake Cowboy Alex Oliveira. 

Lando Vannata has had one of the more interesting starts to his UFC career. He is the only fighter with 2 draws on his record. His record is 2-4-2 in the UFC. Vannata’s UFC debut was as a last minute replacement to fight Tony Ferguson, and he put up a valiant effort before being submitted halfway through the 2nd round. He won a lot of fans that night as not many guys would step in against Ferguson to begin with, let alone on short notice. His next fight was against John Makdessi and he won with a 1st round KO from a spinning wheel kick. He won more fans that night. He is 1-3-2 since that win and he has struggled to put everything together. His cardio is not all that great and tends to be his downfall as he slows down towards the end of the fight.

This match is an entertaining one, and should deliver fireworks. Vannata lives in New Mexico so he won’t have to travel for this one, whereas his last two fights were in Denmark and Australia. If Vannata wasn’t from New Mexico, I’d say the altitude would sap his cardio and Medeiros gets the nod, but I think Vannata puts it together in front of his home crowd.

Lando Vannata by 2nd round TKO

PRELIMS

TIM MEANS V. DANIEL RODRIGUEZ

Tim Means by 3rd round TKO

JOHN DODSON V. NATHANIEL WOOD

Nathaniel Wood by decision

JIM MILLER  V. SCOTT HOLTZMAN

Jim Miller by 1st round submission

DEVIN CLARK V. DEQUAN TOWNSEND

Devin Clark by decision

CASEY KENNEY V. MERAB DVALISHVILI

Merab Dvalishvili by decision

MACY CHIASSON V. SHANNA YOUNG

Macy Chiasson by decision

MARK DE LA ROSA V. RAULIAN PAIVA

Raulian Paiva by decision