Evan’s Better Late than Never UFC 239 Picks

It is finally here, International Fight Week. One of my favorite weeks of the year. We get to celebrate July 4th, and get an amazing UFC card in one week. It is a great combination. UFC 239 is a stacked PPV and should deliver entertaining fights. The top 4 fights all feature Top 6 ranked fighters. There are two title fights. The champions in those fights are arguably the best male and female fighter of all time. If you can’t get it up to watch this card, you’re going to miss out on some good fights.

Jon Jones v. Thiago Santos

Jon Jones is probably going to go down as the best UFC fighter of all time. The guy has an insanely high fight IQ, and an insanely low non-fight IQ. Every time he comes to the octagon, he seems to have gotten better from his last fight. That is fucking impressive considering his only loss was a weakish DQ decision by the referee. Jon Jones’ resume has to be the most impressive in UFC history. You have to go back to 2011 to find a card Jon Jones wasn’t headlining the event. I will always be upset that we never got the Jones v. Rumble Johnson fight. I think that would have been a great matchup.

All this being said, this is a weird time for the light heavyweight division. Jon Jones has completely cleared out the established fighters in the division. Gustafson retired, Cormier is all but done in light heavyweight. The rest of the division is up and coming guys that are probably a fight or two away from being ready for a title fight. But, Jones likes to stay active, so the UFC will feed him the young guys. It’s not always the best for the fighter, but who the fuck would turn down a title match.

Enter Thiago Santos. I like this matchup, but I would have liked Santos to get another fight or two under his belt even if he isn’t a young prospect anymore. Santos started his training with Capoeira before moving onto Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Capoeira is a strange striking martial art that I could see being the skillset to beat Jon Jones. It’s going to take some ridiculous striking to take out Jones, and Capoeira is the discipline that breeds ridiculous striking. Santos adds lead fists to the ridiculous striking to make him an extremely dangerous fighter, if he can land on you. Jones doesn’t seem to get hit in his fights. That could be due to his 84.5 inch reach and his insanely long legs. He keeps guys away from him. He is methodical, and he evolves during the fight. I hate Jon Jones as a human being, but holy shit is he an absolute killer in the octagon and it would be insane to pick against him.

Jon Jones by 3rd round TKO

Amanda Nunes v. Holly Holm

I think this has fight of the night potential. I am a big fan of Amanda Nunes. If she beats Holly Holm, she 100% cements herself as the best female fighter of all time. If she beats Holly, she will have beaten every female bantamweight and, I guess, featherweight UFC Champion ever. Not that anyone really counts Germaine de Randamie, but Nunes did beat her in 2013. Not to mention, Nunes has two wins over current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. Shevchenko has been the hardest fights for Nunes, the only person to take her to a decision and she did it twice. Nunes has power that no other woman brings to the octagon. People thought Cyborg would have her number, but Nunes put her to sleep. Nunes even has two wins over current flyweight Nunes seems to destroy everyone the UFC puts in front of her. 

One thing that does worry me about Nunes is she seems to have grown a massive ego since beating Cyborg. As a fighter, overconfidence can lead to your demise. A short list of examples: Joanna Champion (I won’t even try to spell her name), TJ Dillashaw, Ronda Rousey, Cyborg, Cody Garbrandt, and Anderson Silva. Every one of those fighters lost their title in the fights they were overconfident in, well I guess TJ was challenging for a second title. He lost his title to cheating like a bitch. Nunes seems to be dismissing Holly Holm, and that is not a good decision. Rousey dismissed Holly, and we know how that ended. Rousey took a long break before returning to overconfidently fight Nunes, and she got put down quicker. Nunes has lost the underdog mantle, and is a favorite in this fight. She has won as a favorite, but she had not been facing a great striker in Holly Holm.

Holly is a decorated boxer and kickboxer. She has outstanding footwork, and she can be very accurate. She doesn’t carry the power Nunes does, but she has never been knocked out because of her footwork and fight IQ. Nunes might not be able to just charge in and put Holly to sleep. That’s what Rousey tried and failed miserably at. I think this has potential to be one of the best women’s fights of all time. 

Amanda Nunes by 1st round TKO

 Jorge Masvidal v. Ben Askren

This is a very interesting matchup. We still aren’t sure how good Askren truly is. He’s had only one UFC fight so far, and it was a fluky ending. I believe he was going to win the fight at that point anyway, there was no chance Lawler was breaking that grip. Askren’s wrestling is otherworldly. He has never lost a fight in his professional career. It’s hard to gauge the level of talent he’s facing as it is mostly guys in One FC that we have never seen before. Askren showed that he can take a punch and survive getting rocked. Lawler is one tough son of a bitch, and Askren took the best that Lawler had and still got the choke for the win.

Masvidal is a tough guy that likes to brawl. He wants to get a knockout. He doesn’t like Askren, and thinks he has the power and skills to be the first person to beat Askren. He doesn’t lack confidence for the fight. The animosity between the fighters adds an interesting dynamic to the matchup. 

Askren is level headed and enjoys messing with Masvidal. Masvidal wants to end Askren. Masvidal will be starting the fight looking to kill Askren. Askren will probably be looking for a takedown and some ground and pound for the win.

Ben Askren by decision

Jan Blachowicz v. Luke Rockhold

Luke Rockhold finally makes his light heavyweight debut. He hasn’t fought since that devastating loss to Yoel Romero in February 2018. Rockhold is looking to make a quick rise in the light heavyweight division. He is already calling for a title shot with a win in this fight. He is facing Jan Blachowicz, who feels very disrespected and doesn’t think Rockhold is taking him seriously. Blachowicz sounds like he wants to make a statement. This match could end up being a title eliminator. 

Rockhold’s striking has improved throughout his career, but we know Rockhold is going to hope to get in his famous ground and pound. If he gets top position, Blachowicz will have a very bad night. The issue with this, Rockhold isn’t an accomplished takedown artist. He usually relies on the other fighter taking him down and reversing position to get into top position. His fighting style is awkward. He tries to give up ground defensively to have the fighter come into range of his vicious kicks and to get them to attempt a takedown. 

Blachowicz is one of the gatekeepers of light heavyweight division. Blachowicz doesn’t really have any signature wins. He has always been a top ten ranked fighter in the division, and had a solid winning streak of Jared Canonier, Jimi Manuwa and Nikita Krylov. That win streak brought him to a title eliminator fight against Thiago Santos. Since, Santos is in the main event fighting for the title, that fight didn’t go well for Blachowicz. He met Santos’ power and crumbled.

Rockhold is kind of arrogant, and hasn’t really been talking about Blachowicz. He is talking about a match with Jon Jones for the title. Is this overconfidence going to be his downfall? Blachowicz feels completely disrespected by Rockhold ignoring him, calling for a fight against Jon Jones. I think it’s going to come down to Rockhold not cutting to 185. I’m a big fan of fighters fighting at their natural weight. Rockhold looks and feels better coming into this fight than he has in a while.

Rockhold by decision

Diego Sanchez v. Michael Chiesa

This is a tough fight to decide on. I am pretty biased in favor of Diego Sanchez. Watching him on season 1 of the Ultimate Fighter got me to keep watching the UFC. The guy is an absolute nut job, and I fucking love it. Diego seems to be an ageless wonder, everyone thought he was done after consecutive KO losses to Ragin’ Al Iaquinta and Matt Brown. But he came back with two straight wins to get back on track. 

Michael Chiesa is another guy that stepped up a weight class and is feeling great not having to cut the extra weight. Chiesa is a strong grappler that has 11 submission wins in his 15 wins. He is not really known for standing and trading. He is a tough guy that is hoping to make a statement and propel himself into the rankings. 

Unfortunately for Chiesa, Diego has never been submitted. Diego is an accomplished grappler as well. He has a black belt in BJJ. He is a very strong grappler. I don’t know if Chiesa will be able to take Diego down, or utilize his grappling effectively. I find it hard to pick against the crazy guy in a fight. 

Diego Sanchez by decision

Prelims

Gilbert Melendez v. Arnold Allen

This is Gilbert Melendez’s first fight since September 2017. He is riding in on a 4 fight losing streak to Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Edson Barboza, and Jeremy Stephens. Not the easiest fights. Melendez will look to fight his style, stand and throw in the middle of the octagon. He has 12 KO’s in 22 wins, and has never been KO’d. His resume is filled with amazing fighters. He’s won a good amount more than he lost. But at 37, does he still have it in him to win in the octagon?

Arnold Allen has been under the radar since joining the UFC. He is 5-0 in the UFC, but the names of the guys he’s fought are not too impressive. Allen is looking for the biggest win of his career. Allen is going to stand in front of Melendez and going to try to put him down. This will be a bloody brawl. I wouldn’t be surprised if it wins fight of the night.

Arnold Allen by bloody decision

Marlon Vera v. Nohelin Hernandez

Marlon Vera was looking to battle Suga Sean O’Malley, but O’Malley was pulled a couple of weeks ago because of some picograms or some shit like that. In comes in Nohelin Hernandez, making his UFC debut on 5 days notice. Vera has to be disappointed because a win over O’Malley would look a lot more impressive than a win over a short notice debuting fighter.

Still, Vera is coming in hungry and ready to get a step up in competition, which will be hard to deny if he can get the win here. Vera is a blackbelt in BJJ, and will be looking for a takedown and submission victory. If Hernandez wants to win, it would be best to come out firing. Vera is a slow starter, and can be clipped early.

Marlon Vera by 3rd round Submission

Claudia Gadelha v. Randa Markos

This is a good cross roads match up. Both of these fighters have been in the UFC for a while. Gadelha has been at the top of the division, having fought for the title once. Having fought three of the women’s strawweight champions, she has a lot of big fight experience. But she has lost 2 of her last 3 fights. She has switched camps a couple of times in the last couple of years. If she wants another shot at the title she needs a win here.

Randa Markos has been in the UFC forever, and has yet to fight a top ranked opponent. Markos has impressively never won consecutive fights. She is coming off an impressive armbar finish of Angela Hill. She is looking for her first winning streak in the UFC. With a win here, it could be a nice jump up the rankings and closer to a title shot that has been her goal since entering the UFC.

Randa Markos by 2nd round Submission

Alejandro Perez v. Song Yadong

Song Yadong is only 21 and made his UFC debut 2 years ago. That is crazy. The guy has a strong stand up game and will be looking to try to KO Perez. Yadong is 3-0 in the UFC and this is his biggest challenge yet.

Perez has been in the UFC since 2014 and is 7-2-1 in the organization. Perez prefers to keep the fight standing. He is a defensive striker. He fights similarly to Elias Theodorou. There will be a good amount of running away. Perez is going to try to bait Yadong into a poor decision and get a finish. Or outpoint him for a win.

Alejandro Perez by decision

Early Prelims

Jack Marshman v. Edmen Shahbazyan

Jack Marshman by decision

Ismail Naurdiev v. Chance Rencountre

Ismail Naurdiev by 1st round TKO

Julia Avila v. Pannie Kianzad

Julia Avila by decision

Fight of the Night

Diego Sanchez v. Michael Chiesa