Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC 247

It’s time for UFC 247. Two of the most dominant champions, Jon Jones and Valentina Shevchenko, make their 2020 debut. Derrick Lewis is fighting in front of his hometown Houston for the first time in years as he faces odd against former light heavyweight making his heavyweight debut Ilir Latifi. James Krause is fighting Trevin Giles on 24 hour notice. Lot’s of interesting fights. Here are my picks. 

MAIN CARD

JON JONES V. DOMINICK REYES

Jon Jones, the best light heavyweight in UFC history, arguably the best fighter in UFC history, has beaten nearly everyone they have put in front of him. He’s beaten a lot of legends, he’s beaten a lot of contemporary top fighters, he’s beaten a bunch of newcomers. His one loss was a controversial DQ, and he has a no-contest from the second fight against Daniel Cormier. Granted, we don’t know if he was cheating before the second fight against DC, I’ll go an optimistic route and say he didn’t fail a drug test before, so he probably wasn’t cheating. Either way, Jones is like Barry Bonds, he was already on the path to being one of the greatest, and probably didn’t need to cheat to get there. Jones is on a different level than everyone in the light heavyweight division, at least at this time. His fight IQ, length, ability to adjust mid fight, and superior skills at nearly every facet of a fight is just impressive and unmatched in the UFC. His standup game is very good, he is great at using his insane reach to keep fighters at a distance. He can use every limb/body part to strike effectively, and he mixes them up so well that his opponents never know what is coming. His wrestling/grappling is outstanding and he is always a threat to go for a takedown. His fight against Anthony Smith was a masterpiece Jon Jones fight. Smith was so worried about all the possible strikes (Jones’ elbows are the nastiest) and takedowns, that he was fighting defensively and barely got any offense in. Jones outstruck Smith 238-45. Then Jones ran into the monster Thiago Santos. Santos was not afraid of Jones and kept moving forward. It was probably the closest anyone has come to actually beating Jones (I thought Santos won), but it showed a blueprint for how to beat Jones. Put the pressure on and keep throwing bombs, but also be careful of Jones’ counter striking. You almost have to be cautiously reckless. Santos might have won if he didn’t tear his ACL in the first round, but you could tell Santos was confident going into the fight and he had a good game plan.

That brings us to Jones’ opponent at UFC 247, Dominick Reyes. Reyes is one of those former football players that crossed over to MMA. Reyes is 12-0 since starting his MMA career, 6-0 in the UFC. Reyes is coming off a vicious KO of former middleweight champion Chris Weidman in less than 2 minutes, that propelled him into this title shot. The fight before that was a weak split decision win over Volkan Oezdemir. Other than the Oezdemir fight, Reyes has been dominant and has 4 finishes in his 6 wins. Reyes has really good boxing, and his wrestling is pretty solid. He is not afraid of Jones, which is a good first step. I worry that this might be a little too soon for a fight against Jones. I think Reyes needs another fight or two, but Jones has completely cleared out the division so it is Reyes’ turn.

Reyes is a big guy, at 6’3 he is the same height as Jones, but Jones has a 7 inch reach advantage. Reyes thinks his boxing is better than Jones’, which it may be, but Jones is a much better kickboxer. Reyes has the stopping power necessary to put Jones out, and for betting purposes not a bad underdog pick. I just think Jones is too good and Jones doesn’t seem to like Reyes and his trash talk. We might see a hateful and angry Jones, which is a fun Jones to fight. When Jones isn’t feeling the fight, he coasts and tries to out point guys. Reyes is going to bring the fight to Jones. This should be a fun one, and I think Jones will use Reyes’ aggressiveness against him.

Jon Jones by 2nd round TKO

VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO V. KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN

Valentina is a terrifying fighter. She is one of the best overall fighters and is an absolute nightmare in the octagon. Her only 2 UFC losses were to current bantamweight and featherweight champion, Amanda Nunes. And many people think Valentina won the second fight. Valentina has beaten a lot of great fighters and is a handful. She is a counter striker, so sometimes her fights can be a bit boring. She does better against aggressive fighters. Jessica Eye came in aggressively, and Valentina put her to sleep with a nasty head kick.

She is coming up against an aggressive fighter in Katlyn Chookagian. From her 10 decisions in 13 in wins, it doesn’t look like she is aggressive on paper. She is insanely tall and usually has a reach advantage. She is one of the better fighters at utilizing distance. She uses this to out point most fighters and win. If they do get close to her, she goes for the takedown. She is a really strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. She is a good challenge for Valentina. Chookagian might not have the reach advantage she usually has, but I imagine she is going to try to outpoint Valentina. I don’t think this fight will be as boring as Valentina v. Liz Carmouche, but it might be a lot of standing and not a lot of action. Valentina having good grappling probably means Chookagian might not go for a takedown so she will stand and try to keep distance and out point Valentina. Valentina might score a KO/TKO with her counter striking, but I have a feeling this will be a point fight. Of the two title fights, this one is more likely to get an upset, and Chookagian is an insane underdog in this fight. But I just don’t think she is going to win. 

Valentina Shevchenko by decision

JUAN ADAMS V. JUSTIN TAFA

Juan Adams is making his first walk to the octagon since his sorry performance against Greg Hardy. He was super heated going into the fight and he left the impression he might have been too emotional in pre-fight interviews. That ended up being the case. He charged in and Hardy dropped him with one punch then hammer fisted for the win. 

Justin Tafa made his UFC debut in October on the Whittaker v. Adesanya cars. He is an Australian in the mold of Mark Hunt and Tai Tuivasa, not skills wise yet, but he is a tough bastard that will just keep moving forward. He’ll want to stand and bang and isn’t worried about eating punches. It might not be the best strategy, but it leads to entertaining fights. 

A heavyweight fight like this is always a toss up. It depends on who can land first/who can eat a punch. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Adams, I think Tafa’s pressure and power will overwhelm Adams. 

Justin Tafa by 1st round TKO

MIRSAD BEKTIC V. DAN IGE

This is a battle of featherweights on the edge of contention. Mirsad Bektic trains out of Tristar and is 6-2 in the UFC. His first loss was that insane fight against Darren Elkins, where Elkins had the crazy comeback in the 3rd and got the finish. And he lost in his last fight against Josh Emmett, a nastyTKO. 

Dan Ige trains at Xtreme Couture and is 4-1 in the UFC and riding a 4 fight win streak. He lost his UFC debut to Julio Arce and has beaten 4 guys I’ve never heard of in a row. 

Both of these guys have solid wrestling but don’t mind standing up. I think the wrestling might cancel out and we get a brawl. But brawls can end up on the ground very easily and if that happens, it’ll come down to who the better wrestler is. 

Mirsad Bektic by 2nd round submission

DERRICK LEWIS V. ILIR LATIFI

Ilir Latifi is making his heavyweight debut, and I think this is a bad decision. The guy was small at light heavyweight. He is 7-5 in the UFC and is coming off back to back losses to Corey Anderson and Volkan Oezdemir. Oezdemir KOd Latifi in the 2nd round. Latifi looked small compared to Oezdemir. So he decided to go up in weight and go up against Derrick Lewis. 

Lewis is 7 inches taller than Latifi and is a massive guy. He has to cut weight to hit 265. Lewis has been up and down in his last couple of fights, but he looked comfortable in his last fight, a win against Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis looked like he has found a good routine for training camp and is more confident in his ability. I hate this matchup for Latifi, and love it for Lewis. Lewis is fighting in his hometown of Houston, so let’s hope he gets a win and give us another classic post fight interview. 

Derrick Lewis by 1st round TKO

PRELIMS

TREVIN GILES V. JAMES KRAUSE

Trevin Giles by decision

LAUREN MURPHY V. ANDREA LEE

Andrea Lee by decision

ALEX MORONO V. KALINN WILLIAMS

Alex Morono by 3rd round TKO

MILES JOHNS V. MARIO BAUTISTA

Miles Johns by decision

DOMINGO PILARTE V. JOURNEY NEWSON

Journey Newson by decision

ANDRE EWELL V. JONATHAN MARTINEZ

Andre Ewell by decision

AUSTIN LINGO V. YOUSSEF ZALAL

Austin Lingo by decision