Just about 30 blocks away from me at the most famous Arena in the world, we have one of the most highly anticipated cards of the year. Unfortunately, my broke ass couldn’t afford tickets as much as I wanted to go in my own backyard. We got the two baddest mother fuckers on the whole goddamn planet coming together to put on a show for UFC fans around the world (Cowboy has lost to both of these bad dudes so it is hard to give him the nod). We got one of the best can’t make welterweight matchups (with a sprinkle of can’t make middleweight). We got a possible NMF (Nicest Mother Fucker) welterweight matchup (with arguably better fighters than the BMF). A couple fat dudes are fighting then rounding off the main card with two guys that will try to hug each other to death. This is going to make for a very exciting night of fights that I am still shocked have not fallen apart even though they sure as hell tried to.
There is something crazy happening on this card that I am not sure I have ever seen before. It is unheralded in this day and age of MMA. I am not talking about the BMF belt, I am talking about every single under on this card being the dog except one which is Lewis vs Ivanov at 2.5 Rounds -125 (which is still pretty sexy). I have divulged my guilty pleasure of betting on round unders. It is a heartbreaking game to play but the payout is so quick and abrupt, it must be what it feels like to have sex with me. I won’t give any guidance really on these bets simply because there is a groove to it, if you see a bunch of overs in a row, you know we are due for an under. None of this has any basis to it but it is fun and I like it so back off.
Ok I am done nutting over unders, let’s get on with these picks:
Main Card
Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz BMF Welterweight Bout
Oh boy oh boy oh boy, I did not think this day would actually come. Diaz getting fucked by USADA had me gutted last week thinking this may fall apart (selfishly also would’ve been able to afford tickets probably). But thankfully everything was blown out of proportion and we are now here. Masvidal has been on a magical run, knocking out the biggest person in the welterweight division and the formerly best grappler in welterweight history (sarcasm). Before that he has lost a couple close decisions to fighters that have barely done any damage to him. He has changed his mindset to make sure he doesn’t leave things to the judges.
Diaz took quite an amount of time off because “everybody sucks and there was nobody to fight.” He now has his opponent who doesn’t suck allegedly and is ready to go to war. Diaz destroyed Pettis in his last bout and before that was his McGregor saga where I think he won the second but the judges disagreed. I think Diaz has an advantage in this fight everywhere but in power. If he lets Masvidal land on him he will probably get knocked out and this fight will be over. I think Diaz fights smart and lands in higher volume and will win any grappling exchanges that will ensue. Lock it in for Diaz, love taking the dog in this close of a matchup.
Nate Diaz by Decision +140 1 unit
Kelvin Gastelum vs Darren Till Welterweight Middleweight Bout
I am really happy Kelvin never tried to go back to welterweight. He has looked great at middle, earning an interim title shot that he held his own in. Watching him try to cut that weight at welter was tough to see, he just couldn’t lose that extra fat and he killed himself to get down to the limit. Now he is having trouble making the 186 limit and possibly cheated by leaning on his coach at the weigh-in.
Till looked fantastic at the weigh-ins. It is great to see fighters not torture themselves to be get a slight size advantage in a lower weight class. I think we are going to see an even better Darren Till at this weight. I think he will have a better tank, have more power, and be quicker than he was at 170. The same boost we have been seeing in a ton of guys will be tenfold for Till who has been held back by vicious weight cuts. I was leaning towards Kelvin all week but after seeing him have a hard time cutting, I am giving the edge to Till here.
Darren Till by Decision +200 1 unit
Stephen Thompson vs Vicente Luque NMF Welterweight Bout
Hi above the mucky muck castle made of clouds, there sits Wonderboy sitting oh so proudly. I have been a Wonderboy fan for as long as I can remember. Came out of the womb cheering for the man. My nickname in Middle School was also Wonderboy because I threw up at football practice while wearing a shirt that said Wonderboy on it. So I have a strong emotional tie to him. He is the best points striker in the UFC in my opinion. He got caught in his last bought and lost a questionable decision to Till.
I like Vicente Luque a lot. He is a fun fighter to watch, good striker, and extremely nice guy. He can be a constant force in the 170 division top 10 for years to come. Unfortunately for him, I do not think he is in the same class as Wonderboy. Wonderboy will keep this fight at his distance and exhaust Luque’s gas tank out to squeak out a decision win.
Stephen Thompson by Decision -105 1 unit
Derrick Lewis vs Blagoy Ivanov Heavyweight Bout
The black beast is back after his horrible 2 showings against DC and JDS but tonight there is some magic in the air. To me this is do or die for him. Blagoy has been riding out boring ass decisions since he joined the UFC and I think it is time for that to end. Lewis is coming in here, looking leaner and meaner and ready to work his way back to the top of this division.
Derrick Lewis by 2nd Round TKO -105 1 unit
Kevin Lee vs Gregor Gillepsie Lightweight Bout
Kevin Lee back down to lightweight where he managed to make weight but still looked emaciated. I wish we got to see a world with a 165 weight class for the guy, but he still would have lost to RDA so it doesn’t really matter. Gregor Gillepsie has looked unstoppable in the octagon. I do not think he will have to worry about Lee on the feet and I think he has the grappling advantage. I think this is the fight that makes Kevin Lee reconsider what he’s doing and maybe take his talents to Bellator.
Gregor Gillepsie by 3rd Round Submission -145 1 unit
Prelims
Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker Light Heavyweight Bout
I hate myself. I hate myself so much for what I am about to do. I love Johnny Walker so much. His striking is dazzling, his dancing is otherworldly, and he knows how to end things quickly to keep the card pacing up. But I think Corey Anderson will fight too smart to get lost in all of this. He is going to keep his distance and get into clinches and go for takedowns to empty Walker’s tank and work his way to a boring decision win. I hate it but its true.
Corey Anderson by Decision +150 1 unit
Shane Burgos vs Makwan Amirkhani Featherweight Bout
Hurricane Shane is my guy. I am always pulling for fellow Tiger Schulmann’s guys. This is one of his toughest tests since joining the UFC. He lost a tough one to Calvin Kattar, but has won 2 since, most recently edging out a split win over Cub Swanson. Makwan is also coming off of 2 straight with a split win sneaking its way in there. Makwan has the wrestling advantage but I think that Shane is able to keep this on the feet and make sure it doesn’t make it to the judges.
Shane Burgos by 2nd Round TKO -222 2 units
Brad Tavares vs Edmen Shahbazyan Middleweight Bout
This is an enormous jump in competition for Edmen having supposed to fight Jotko with Tavares now filling in. Edmen has been undefeated so far in his young career, only being 21 years old. He is only getting better as he still hasn’t reached his prime. Tavares is no cake walk for this kid. HIs only losses in the UFC are to the best the division has to offer and Tim Boetsch. I think Edmen takes a valuable lesson in defeat here coming up against someone who just has far more experience and will know how to handle the young striker.
Brad Tavares by Decision +135 1 unit
Andrei Arlovski vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Heavyweight Bout
This one hurts. Maybe not as much the Anderson pick hurt, but hurts nonetheless. I love Arlovski. I remember when he was on Bully Beatdown fucking up some paid actor. Dude just wants to go in there and see how much more he can fuck up his nose. But Rozenstruik is a bad, bad, bad man. He knocked someone down with a stiff jab. He has bombs in those gloves and Arlovski will not be able to stay awake taking those punches to the face for 15 minutes.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by 1st Round TKO -145 2 units
Early Prelims
Katlyn Chookagian vs Jennifer Maia Flyweight Bout
Jennifer Maia by Decision +150 1 unit
Lyman Good vs Chance Rencountre Welterweight Bout
Lyman Good by 2nd Round TKO -115 1 unit
Julio Arce vs Hakeem Dawodu Featherweight Bout
Julio Arce by Decision +115 1 unit
That is it for my picks. I am so fucking amped for this card I can’t contain myself from this excitement. I can’t remember such a well rounded card with no title fights. I remember last year when the title bout for the MSG card fell through so they panicked and got DC vs Lewis. It sucked and was not worth the price of admission (I went for free, not to brag). Now they have a card without a true title belt, not to besmirch the BMF Title. We are going to make some money because as I am writing this I am in quite the football betting hole. I need the UFC lines to bring me back to life and let me afford one of those bidets you can install in your toilet with the heated water. So as always, may luck be your lady tonight.