As combat sports fans we no longer get a chance to exhale before there is another event sneaking up on you. I am not going to complain, I first started following MMA because there weren’t enough football story lines over the summer. So here we are, another fight that could boost someone into title implications (kinda), a chance to see a terrible human being get his comeuppance, and to get a good look at the best smile in the whole wide world. Last week we had a crazy night of finishes, but outside of a couple of fights, there weren’t too many household names. Here we have some people on the UFC roster that have some strong standing with the fans.
This card has a bunch of matchups that I am stoked for. Dos Anjos vs Edwards, Hardy vs Adams, Vick vs Hooker, Modafferi vs Maia, and pretty much every fight in between are awesome. I’d say out of all events, this one’s main event is the furthest from birthing a title challenger, but doesn’t necessarily mean one won’t be awarded to the winner. The best part of this card you ask? Almost every matchup is extremely stand up heavy, very few true grapplers that will slow things down, so expect ensuing chaos. I think there is a great opportunity to make some good money off of this card. A lot of the underdogs have a great shot at stealing wins with these super even matchups.
Now let’s get into it, here are my picks for this top heavy fight night:
Main Card
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Leon Edwards Welterweight Bout
Hell yea, this is a matchup that makes fucking sense and I love it. Rafael Dos Anjos has been great since moving up to welterweight. He’s healthy, stronger, and his cardio is lightyears better than when he was cutting down to 155. His only two losses at this weight are to the to title holders in Kamaru Usman, and Colby Covington. There are very few fighters in the world that are able to beat Dos Anjos in the standup, coupled with his strong jiu jitsu game, at 170 it looks like you have to be an incredible wrestler to subdue him.
Leon Edwards is on an incredible since he lost to Usman back in the end of 2015. He has 7 straight wins (all of them went to the 3rd round), and has taken a 3 piece and a soda and has lived to tell the tale. Edwards is a precise striker that doesn’t pose much of a threat to knock you out but can out point you and beat you up for 25 minutes (as he did against Cowboy Cerrone). This fight puts his striking to test against a guy with heavy hands and a strong submission game.
The interesting part of this fight is that I think if Edwards wins, he has a decent argument for a title shot. There aren’t a lot of people ahead of him in line and he would be coming off of 8 straight wins. If Dos Anjos wins, he will still be a fight or two away from another shot at Usman (I don’t think there is a person in the world that can beat him right now). That being said, I am giving the edge to Dos Anjos on this one. I think he has way more tools in his arsenal, and will bring Edwards into deep waters that he has not faced in his career. Edwards has 0 wins against anyone in the top 10 currently, and I don’t think he gets his first tonight.
Rafael Dos Anjos by 4th Round TKO +110 1 unit
Aleksei Oleinik vs Walt Harris Heavyweight Bout
An interesting choice for the co-main event considering people probably care about the 2 fights following this. Oleinik is one of the more prolific fighters in MMA history, having started his career in 1996 when the sport was still so new. He has incredible knockout power and a very strong submission game. When you have been in the game this long, you are bound to be constantly adding new and innovative stuff to your arsenal to stay relevant. Harris was a former basketball player turned fighter. He has fallen short of expectations, falling short to all of the high level fighters he’s come up against, and having failed a drug test (proved tainted supplement). I do not think he has enough in his arsenal to take on Oleinik in this one.
Aleksei Oleinik by 2nd Round Submission -105 2 units
Juan Adams vs Greg Hardy Heavyweight Bout
Here we go, the event I probably care way too much about on this card. I’ll go out and put it in the open. I hate Greg Hardy. He is a 6’5 monster and beat and strangled his girlfriend then threatened to kill her. He is a bad person and is not deserving of a second chance, I do not care what Dana says. Now onto his combat acumen, he has been giving tomato cans since he became pro and was barely beating Allen Crowder before he got a DQ loss. He comes up against Juan Adams who is coming of a disputable decision loss Arjan Singh Bhullar who is far better than anyone that Hardy has faced. Before that loss Adams had 5 straight TKO wins with 4 of them being in the first round. Adams will have the crowd on his side and the nation on his side. I am going with him in this one, he is the same size as Hardy and throws just as hard if not harder. Not to mention he has been doing this longer and has a more developed ground game.
Juan Adams by 2nd Round TKO -155 1 unit
James Vick vs Dan Hooker Lightweight Bout
Being touted as the people’s main event, this fight should guarantee non stop action. James Vick is giant for this weight class with a height of 6’3, there are not many 155ers that are near that size. Vick is a strong boxer, but has been on a little bit of a skid in his last couple bouts falling to Paul Felder and Justin Gaethje. Before that he seemed poised to tear through the division using his striking and distance to pick fighters apart. He comes up against Hooker who is coming off of a brutal body shot TKO from Edson Barboza. He racked up a 4 fight winning streak prior to this, all by finish. Hooker is an excellent striker as well with a background in Muay Thai. I like Hooker a lot, but he has fallen short every time he has taken a step up in competition. The same could be said about Vick, but with his height advantage I think he is able to keep this fight at his range and do what he needs to do to take the win here. This is one fight that I would not be upset to be wrong about, similar to the Urijah Faber fight last week.
James Vick by Decision +145 1 unit
Alexander Hernandez vs Francisco Trinaldo Lightweight Bout
I always mention fights where I can tell that Dana wants to build up a prospect, and this is one right here. Alexander Hernandez is a great young talent in the lightweight division. At only 26 years old he already has a 10-2 record with 2 wins in the UFC. His only UFC loss comes up against Cowboy Cerrone, who everyone forgot was incredible at 155 before moving up to 170. Out of his 10 wins, 6 were finished, the man doesn’t like letting it go to the judges. He has extremely heavy hands, being slightly shorter for this weight class. He is up against Francisco Trinaldo is pretty much the opposite of Hernandez here. He is 40 years old and only has 29 fights under his belt. He started his career as a kickboxer and was a Brazilian champion before moving to MMA. It always shocks me when Brazilians aren’t known for their BJJ, but he is no schlub having earned his brown belt. Even with these accolades I do not think he has what it takes to beat this young bull in this matchup. He is pretty old to be doing this weight cut, doesn’t have the power behind his strikes anymore, and Dana wouldn’t put his young stud up against a guy he thought could beat him. Lock in Hernandez.
Alexander Hernandez by 1st Round TKO -175 2 units
Andrei Arlovski vs Ben Rothwell Heavyweight Bout
Seldom do you see 3 heavyweight bouts on the main card, but hell I won’t complain about it. I don’t really know why, but I love Andrei Arlovski. I remember watching him on Bully Beatdown (good luck in prison Mayhem) and ever since the dude has had a place in my heart. Unfortunately, he has 9 losses in his last 11 fights (one of the was an NC, but for the sake of this I’m counting it as a loss). He always has power in his hands, but he’s now 40 years old and it’s going to be tougher and tougher to find that elusive win. Ben Rothwell gets his rematch with Arlovski since being KOd by him 11 years ago. Rothwell just came off of a 3 year break (with a 2 year PED suspension) where he lost a questionable decision to Blagoy Ivanov. He is back trying to get in the win column also. He looked a lot slower and rusty in his return. He is one of the strongest grapplers in the division but it is tough to speak to his ability having such a long break (and who knows how reliant he was on PEDs). I have been pretty back and forth on this one, but for some reason I see an Arlovski KO again. Arlovski has been losing lately, but with a lot of close decisions, I think he is going to finally be able to do what it takes to get back on track and possibly retire with a win.
Andrei Arlovski by 2nd Round TKO +165 1 unit
Prelims
Alex Caceres vs Steven Peterson Featherweight Bout
If you were to tell me Bruce Leeroy was not in the UFC anymore I would’ve believed you. The man has been around since 2011 and has more losses than wins since joining. A former TUF fan favorite, he has stuck around with his interesting look and kung fu fighter style. He never showed much more than being a journeyman, and I don’t think that is going to change anytime soon. Steven Peterson 1-2 in the UFC with a loss on top of that on DWTNCS. His last bout was a decision loss to Luis Peña, with Peña coming in 2.5 pounds over the limit. Both of these fighters are pretty underwhelming so far in their careers, I am not too sure why this is the featured prelim to be honest. I am going to give Peterson the benefit of the doubt and say he had the disadvantage of having to fight someone that missed weight, I am taking him in this one.
Steven Peterson by Decision -104 .5 unit
Raquel Pennington vs Irene Aldana Bantamweight Bout
I can’t lie to you, these prelims are not too great. They managed to round out a fairly decent main card but just threw darts at a board full of names for the prelims. Here we have Raquel Pennington who had a career turnaround putting together 4 straight wins after amassing a record of 5-5 earning herself a title shot against Amanda Nuñes. She got crushed there then lost another fight by decision to former featherweight champ Germaine De Randamie. If Randamie had lost last week I probably would hold Pennington in lower regard, but she seems like the real deal. Irene Aldana has strung together 3 straight wins with the most notable being over former title challenger Bethe Correia by submission. Aldana has a decently strong standup game and a great submission arsenal and has finished 8 out of her 10 fights. That being said, I think Pennington is still the better fighter with better wins under her belt. She was unfortunate to go up against the to 2 best fighters in the division most recently, but I think she’ll show she is still a top 5 talent in this weight class tonight.
Raquel Pennington by Decision +105 1 unit
Sam Alvey vs Klidson Abreu Light Heavyweight Bout
That smile. That damned smile. Smilin’ Sam Alvey is back to warm everyone’s heart and hopefully give us an entertaining fight in the middle of these lackluster prelims. He has dropped 2 straight bringing his LHW record to 2-2 with hopes to change that. Smilin’ is a brawler, he is gonna stand right there with you and exchange no matter how much better you are than him. He won’t beat himself, you are going to have to work to beat him. Klidson Abreu is a young prospect with only one UFC fight under his belt, a loss to Magomed Ankalaev. Before that loss he had 6 straight finishes, 5 of which were submissions. The guy is an incredible BJJ practitioner and is hoping to stay in the UFC which means he needs to get a win. This one really hurts me deep inside, but I am going to have to side with Abreu. Alvey is a middleweight who got too worn to keep cutting, Abreau is stronger, has better grappling and not a terrible standup game to boot.
Klidson Abreu by 3rd Round Submission -144 2 units
Roxanne Modafferi vs Jennifer Maia Flyweight Bout
Roxanne is a pioneer of women’s MMA, having been active since 2003, she was one of the first out there to make a name for herself and the sport. As a true flyweight, it too her sometime to get into the UFC since the division didn’t exist until her second go on TUF crowned the first champion. Unfortunately, Roxanne isn’t all that great of a fighter anymore, maybe ever. She has lost to a lot of middle of the road fighters as of late with her most notable win being over Valentina Schevchenko’s sister, who everyone knew had an inflated undefeated record. She comes up against Jennifer Maia. With her last name, you would assume she is a BJJ master and would take this fight to the ground and try to earn the submission, but you would be oh so wrong. Maia was a pro boxer, going 3-0 before transitioning to MMA. That being said, she still trains Chute Boxe with outstanding BJJ practitioners and has a very strong ground game. I don’t really see anywhere that Roxanne can win this fight, Maia is a better all around fighter, not to mention has already beaten Roxanne. That’s right folks this is a rematch. Lock in Maia for the win.
Jennifer Maia by Decision -124 1 unit
Ray Borg vs Gabriel Silva Bantamweight Bout
Man do I feel for Ray Borg, that man has been through so much with his son needing several brain surgeries in his first few years of life. He is an incredible flyweight fighter and still very young. Having earned a title shot, the Tasmanian Devil unfortunately fell victim to one of the coolest submissions in UFC history with Demetrious Johnson pulling his mouse trap (a flying armbar). Borg has now moved up to bantamweight where I think he is a bit too small. He comes up against UFC newcomer Gabriel Silva. Silva was circling the Brazilian promotions before being called to LFA a few months ago. After a big win there, he got the call from Dana to come showcase his skills in the biggest MMA banner on earth. He is undefeated and has the ability to finish the fight standing or on the ground. I don’t know why I always have a hunch on newbies, maybe it’s because I know how tough Dana is on letting in talent, that these guys must’ve shown something special. That being said I am taking Silva, I just don’t think Borg is cut out for Bantamweight, he is going to need to catch him in order to take this one.
Gabriel Silva by 3rd Round TKO +225 1 unit
Early Prelims
Mario Bautista vs Jin Soo Son Bantamweight Bout
Jin Soo Son by 2nd Round TKO -253 2 units
Felipe Colares vs Domingo Pilarte Bantamweight Bout
Domingo Pilarte by 1st Round Submission -275 3 units
That wraps up this card, what a night we have in store for us. As much as I seem to shit on the smaller fights, it is always with fighters that are trying to make a name for themselves and establish a following, so look for the finish. Hoping this week goes my way a little more than last week, these are some of the most even matchups I have ever seen on a card, absolutely no freebies here. Also this card is an hour earlier because ESPN realizes that no one wants to stay up till 1 in the morning to watch a non title fight, I appreciate the thoughtfulness that is now being portrayed by this very unthoughtful organization. May luck be the lady tonight, safe betting to everyone.