The time has come for international fight week and with that comes my rebranded betting blog. This is one hell of a main card with a good enough prelim card to not make me upset. We have Jon Bones Jones trying his very best to escape what he has done to his own reputation, against a man who very few thought would be more than a name to fill out the roster and be a stepping stone for young talent. After that we have The best female fighter of all time in Amanda Nunes vs the giant killer Holly Holm. Two title fights on this card that may not be the sexiest of matchups, they did not have much build up, and there was no rivalry or shit talking leading up to the fights, but it is possibly the two worst matchups either could have imagined.
On top of the title fights, we see Ben Askren vs Jorge Masvidal which could very well be a number 1 contender match (no idea what the hell Covington is doing fighting Lawler but if he wins he’d be the only person in the way). I am incredibly excited to see what these fights bring for the fans, they all make sense and could change the landscape of the each weight class for the foreseeable future. We have Luke Rockhold making the long awaited move to light heavyweight, Michael Chiesa seeking to prove he belongs at welterweight, and Diego Sanchez being evergreen in lunacy and entertainment. Let’s get this show on the road and get in with my picks for this killer card.
Main Card
Jon Jones vs Thiago Santos Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Seldom when fans ask for a specific fight does Dana oblige but here we are in the beginning of July ready to watch a guy who stayed active and won every fight put in front of him getting a title shot against the greatest fighter of all time. Jon Jones has nothing to prove within his fighting career, but everything to prove in regard to the public’s perception of him. After a hit and run, failed drug tests (both recreational and performance enhancing), and pretty much just seeming like he is constantly lying to everyone at every turn, he looks to keeping busy and getting enough fights without controversy that people completely forget about his past. Jones hasn’t been beaten by his opponent in his whole career (he beat himself against Hamill and it looks like even that may be overturned), he is the perfect fighter in every regard except maybe his mind.
He comes up against Thiago Marreta Santos, a once forgotten middleweight who was never able to make the jump in competition to get into the title picture. Santos made the move up to light heavyweight where he was able to focus more on training and less on weight cutting and the results are astounding. He has 3 straight wins in the division all by TKO/KO in brutal fashion. In a division that is getting overhauled with young talent, he may be the last one of this generation of fighters that gets a chance to take on Jones.
Of course in every fight, the lesser fighter always has a puncher’s chance of winning. That is exactly what Santos has, he is nowhere near as talented as jones, doesn’t stack up to him physically, doesn’t have the accolades or the experience that Jones has. What he does have are really heavy hands that if Jones doesn’t keep his distance, could end the night early. Now even though Santos has one of the best tattoos in MMA (the jewish star on his shoulder, not the giant hammer on his chest) I will be going with the obvious Jon Jones here. Only one man has been close to beating jones in the last decade and that was Gustafsson who is just as physically strange as Jones is. This fight will go how everyone things it will with Jones picking Santos apart until he is too beat up and gassed to continue.
Jon Jones by 4th Round TKO -900 4 Units
Amanda Nunes vs Holly Holm Bantamweight Title Bout
Now this fight is a bit more interesting. Amanda Nunes is a beast, that’s the only way to describe her. She had a few losses early in her career, but since she has gone 8 straight without defeat with her only 2 decision wins coming against flyweight title holder Valentina Shevchenko. In her career she has beaten every female UFC champion outside of strawweight and Nicco Montano (paper champ). She beat the Cyborg who everyone thought was by far the best female fighter of all time. She beat Rousey, Shevchenko, Miesha Tate, and every challenger she has had since her reign began. Now she comes up against the one bantamweight title holder she hasn’t crossed off the list yet in Holly Holm.
Holm seemed like the next best thing after she utterly destroyed Ronda Rousey for the first time ever. She was the preacher’s daughter, everyone loved her and she seemed destined to control this division for a very long time. That was extremely incorrect. She has lost 4 out of her last 6 and has been back and forth between bantamweight and featherweight trying to find her footing. Fortunately for Holm, bantam and feather are devoid of talent as of late since everyone keeps losing to the champs. Now she stands, hoping to shock the world again and take down the most decorated female fighter in UFC history.
I will say the one problem I have with this card is that I love the favorites. So again, I am going with the current double champion Amanda Nunes to retain her belt. She is lightyears the better fighter than Holm, with knockout power and a strong ground game. Holm can maybe try to dictate the distance but if Nunes wasn’t scared of Cyborg’s string then she sure as hell won’t be scared of Holm’s
Amanda Nunes by 3rd Round TKO -345 3 Units
Ben Askren vs Jorge Masvidal Welterweight Bout
Our last non title fight of the evening is a matchup that has actually had some bad blood. Now I am not too sure if there would’ve been bad blood if it wasn’t for Ben Askren being such a troll is to be left to you guys. Ben Askren is set up for his second fight in the UFC after being traded for Might Mouse with One Championship. His first bout was extremely disappointing after almost getting knocked out by Robbie Lawler, then getting a controversial submission finish. Askren was long thought to be the best fighter not in the UFC, but now he has his opportunity to prove he is the best fighter period. Arguably the best wrestler in a wrestler heavy weight class, he faces a small welterweight striker with much improved wrestling.
Jorge Masvidal is coming off of a crazy knockout finish over Darren Till. Masvidal was a Strikeforce lightweight champion and fought much of his UFC career at 155 before making the jump up to 170 to avoid the brutal weight cut (loving this trend these days). Masvidal has been fighting professionally since 2003, and is only 34 years old which is an absolutely nuts amount of time for someone to have been fighting in this sport while still improving. His standup is one of the best in the weight class and while training at ATT has much improved his grappling.
I feel like this decision may come back to bite me but screw it. I am taking Masvidal in this fight. Masvidal has only one loss in the last 5 years that wasn’t a split decision, he is extremely hard to beat convincingly. Askren did not impress me at all in his first fight in the UFC and I don’t think his wrestling will be enough to keep Masvidal away. If the fight goes Askren’s way, it will be boring for all of us, he will hold him down and against the cage and grind out a boring decision that no one wants to see. So here we go Masvidal lock it in, I’m ready to be shocked.
Jorge Masvidal by 2nd Round Decision +150 1 unit
Luke Rockhold vs Jan Blachowicz Light Heavyweight Bout
Here we go, another fighter moving up a weight class so he can perform closer to his natural weight and not ruin his cardio by cutting nearly 50 lbs. Luke Rockhold seemed like an unstoppable force in the middleweight division until he hit a wall they call Michael Bisping. After that loss he beat David Branch in a tune up fight but then lost again to Yoel Romero. That was a year and a half ago and now he’s back to show he wants to fight for gold again, just in a more comfortable weight class.
He is up against Jan Blachowicz, a staple of the LHW class for the last 5 years. He was on a 4 fight winning streak before falling to title challenger Thiago Santos. He was the former KSW LHW Champion and is a very well rounded fighter. Jan has never really made waves in the UFC, winning fights he’s supposed to and losing fights that would catapult him into the title picture. This will be one of the more interesting fights in his career coming up against a former middleweight champ.
I have been pretty back and forth on this fight, one of the closest lines on the whole card. I am going to go with my gut and give the edge to Rockhold on this one. He is an elite talent and has proved it on the biggest stage in MMA. His weight cuts have always been holding him back and have weakened his chin. You can see that moving up has helped so many fighters reinvent myself and I believe the same thing will happen at this event. Additionally, this is my Fight of the Night winner, expect a ton of standup.
Luke Rockhold by Decision -125 2 units
Diego Sanchez vs Michael Chiesa Welterweight Bout
Oh boy oh boy oh boy is this a fight for the people right here. We have the first ever TUF champions in Diego Sanchez going up against the season 15 winner in Michael Chiesa. I’m no historian but I have a feeling this is the biggest season gap in TUF champion bouts in UFC history. Diego Sanchez has won 2 straight and is actually looking like a completely new man out there. He is being crazy again and makes for must watch interviews before every fight. He took out Mickey Gall in his last bout that I thought he would for sure lose but low and behold he won by TKO in the second.
Michael Chiesa has his second bout at welterweight since moving up from lightweight. In his first fight at 170 he destroyed Carlos Condit wrapping him up and submitting him in the second round. He looks so much healthier at this weight class and I am ready to see what he can bring to this already stacked division. Probably one of the stronger submission artists on the roster, he could really make a dent with the right matchups of grappler heavy division.
I am giving the edge to Chiesa on this one, he is the younger fighter, the more talented fighter, and the bigger fighter. Diego is closer to a featherweight than he is a welterweight and I think this jump in competition will make this obvious to top brass. I love Sanchez with all of my heart, but there is a certain wall fighters hit and i think Chiesa will be this wall.
Michael Chiesa by 2nd Round Submission -240 2 units
Prelims
Gilbert Melendez vs Arnold Allen Featherweight Bout
An interesting matchup in the featherweight division between longtime UFC mainstay Gilbert Melendez and the young up and coming Arnold Allen. I don’t know many people that miss Strikeforce more than Melendez having only one win since they were purchased by the UFC (against Diego Sanchez oddly enough). He was a Strikeforce champion and is now riding an abysmal 4 fight losing streak. Arnold Allen is 12 years younger than Melendez and has 4 more UFC wins at the young age of 25. I don’t see Melendez being able to pull this one off, he is only getting older and showing no signs of improvement in his fights even with the move down from lightweight to feather. Allen is young and hungry and I think will be a fighter to look out for in the future.
Arnold Allen by Decision -275 2 units
Marlon Vera vs Nohelin Hernandez Bantamweight Bout
Marlon Vera was supposed to face Sugar Sean O’Malley as the featured prelim bout, but unfortunately due to a failed drug test, Sugar had to pull out. In comes Nohelin Hernandez, who was supposed to be fighting for the LFA title later in July, ready to fill in for him. Vera has been on a tear winning 3 straight since a decision loss to Douglas Silva de la Andrade. He is great on his feet and in the grappling game and climbing his way up the bantamweight division. Hernandez is a young fighter training out of AKA and could probably not be more excited to get the nod to fill in for this fight to try to showcase what he has to offer. Under most circumstances, I would not take the late fill in, but Hernandez had been in camp training for a fight later this month and is at arguably the best gym in America. This one might get me some flack but I’m taking the fill in Nohelin Hernandez in this one. I think Vera gets overwhelmed by opponents with a more diverse background, Hernandez will stifle him and take the win.
Nohelin Hernandez by Decision +325 .5 units
Claudia Gadelha vs Randa Markos Strawweight Bout
If you would have spoken to me about her three years ago, I would’ve told you that Claudia Gadelha would be the UFC flyweight champion. Here we are in 2019 and she still hasn’t made the jump up and still deals with this brutal weight cut fight after fight. She is up against Randa Markos, who has won every other fight she has been in since 2014. It will be an tough matchup with Gadelha who has some of the heavier hands in the weight class coupled with a BJJ background, against Markos whom is one of the best grapplers in the weight class without much in the standup department. I don’t see Markos being able to fight her way in order to take this one (plus she won her last fight so she is due to lose), with Gadelha being a good grappler in her own rite. Gadelha takes this matchup but I hope she sees all of these fighters that have moved up a weight class and had incredible success.
Claudia Gadelha by 3rd Round TKO -349 2 units
Alejandro Perez vs Song Yadong Bantamweight Bout
The UFC has been trying to break into the Chinese market for some time now. Song Yadong is their best shot to do so within the male roster, but he has to get through Alejandro Perez first. This fight was supposed happen in March but Yadong pulled out for an undisclosed reason. Perez ended up losing that bout to the very talented Cody Stamann but before that had essentially won 7 fights in a row (had a majority draw due to getting deducted a point for a late hit). He is relatively young at 29 and looks to continue his push to the top of the bantamweight division. Yadong, other than having a hilarious name, is 21 years old and only has 3 losses in his young career. He is growing incredibly fast as a fighter coming from a mostly striking background is now adding a grappling acumen. I think Yadong takes this one, he is incredibly young and talented and will break onto the scene with this win.
Song Yadong by Decision -163 1 unit
Early Prelims
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Jack Marshman Middleweight Bout
Edmen Shahbazyan by Decision -362 3 units
Ismail Naurdiev vs Chance Recountre Welterweight Bout
Chance Recountre by 2nd Round Submission +237 1 unit
Julia Avila vs Pannie Kianzad Bantamweight Bout
Julia Avila by Decision -205 3 units
This was a fun one to pick, a lot of big names mixed with a lot of fresher ones. Should be an amazing night of fights and we all get to witness 2 of the greatest ever to add to their evergrowing resumes. I am happy Dana and Sean Shelby were able to put together a good card for IFW as in the past they have dropped the ball and had a ton of dropouts. Let’s all win some money together and show our books that we are better than them. Or not lose so much money that we have to sleep through dinner the next week. Either way, sit back and relax and enjoy the show.