There is nothing like being a UFC fan in the summer, an event nearly every single weekend. This Saturday comes a fight that I would say was gifted to us from the MMA gods, but I said the same thing with Francis Ngannou vs Derrick Lewis, and I can’t set myself up for disappointment like that again. Nonetheless, I am as excited as I have been in a year to get to see a Heavyweight matchup of this magnitude. A sure to be number 1 contender spot is on the line in Minneapolis this weekend, with the winner either fighting Stipe for his belt or Stipe for Cormier’s belt.
Outside of the main event we have a lot of great fights with some new talent that we hope to see make their way into the UFC world. For the third card on ESPN they didn’t try to get too many big names, but if I know that bald evil genius Dana, he is confident that these are some people that will make for an entertaining night. With all of that taken into account, let’s get this show on the road and get down to some of my top picks (trying to think of a cool name for this blog, Jake’s Jaw Droppers is all I have right now and that’s kind of ass).
Main Card:
Francis Ngannou vs Junior Dos Santos Heavyweight Bout
Oh boy oh boy oh boy are we in for a treat with these two. Sure they decided to make it a five round, but don’t you worry, this ain’t making it out of the 2nd round. I refuse to believe this will be anything like last years snoozer between Ngannou and Lewis, as long as I keep saying that there is just no way it could happen. Francis Ngannou has had his horrible curse broken every since Stipe lost and is back to making people’s souls exit their bodies in just terrifying fashion. With two brutal knockouts in a row over Curtis Blaydes and Cain Velasquez, he is all the way back and ready to get his rematch that broke his spirit and mind.
Up against his is Junior Dos Santos, an absolute legend in the UFC and former champion. He has been on a tear of his on as of late and ready to take back his division by taking out one of the scariest people put on god’s green earth. In order to pull it off there is no way he can let this stay on the feet. Dos Santos is a BJJ black belt, but I cannot remember a fight where he didn’t just try to slug it out with his opponent. It has worked as of late having two straight TKO victories over decent competition.
Unfortunately for Dos Santos, that competition was not Ngannou. Dos Santos likes to stand and exchange and this is not a “human being” you can do that with. He won’t be able to close the distance in order to utilize his grappling, unless his chin is as strong as Stipe’s which I do not think it is. Ngannou is in another class than most of this current roster and if he has even improved in the slightest since his title shot, I don’t see anyone being able to stop him at this point.
Francis Ngannou by 2nd Round TKO -185 2 units
Jussier Formiga vs Joseph Benavidez Flyweight Bout
This is some incredible juxtaposition here, the Flyweight top contender bout right before the Heavyweight one. This is a rematch of a 2013 fight that ended with Benavidez having his hand raised after a first round TKO. Both men are different fighters since then, we get the opportunity to see who has evolved the most in the last 6 years.
Jussier Formiga has been on a roll as of late rattling off four consecutive wins since a decision loss to Ray Borg. His only losses in his UFC career were to title challengers, including Henry Cejudo (Champ Champ) which ended in a split decision. Formiga is a very experienced grappler who hopes to be able to impose his will on arguably the worst matchup possible in Joseph Benavidez.
Benavidez has been on a decent little streak himself, winning 8 of his last 9 including a win over Henry Cejudo. His only loss, Sergio Pettis, was a very questionable decision and didn’t seem to phase Benavidez moving forward. As good of a grappler Formiga is, Benavidez is better. Anywhere in this octagon I think that Benavidez is better. I do not see the same ending as last time, in that it won’t be finished early, but I still see Benavidez getting his hand raised.
Joseph Benavidez by Decision -170 2 units
Demian Maia vs Rocco Martin Welterweight Bout
This is a really interesting matchup for both fighters. Demian Maia has been a mainstay in the UFC since 2007. So consistently the best BJJ guy in the division, he never really developed anything else, which has kept him in his top 10 spot in multiple weight classes over his career. After 3 dominating losses against master class wrestlers, he bounced back with a quick submission win over prolific striker Lyman Good (Tiger Schulmann’s needs to up the grappling). He faces an interesting talent in Rocco Martin this Saturday.
The Rocco formally known as Tony Martin has a very unusual place in my heart. He wasn’t very good when he first joined the UFC losing 3 out of his first 4 fights. He since bounced back and has only lost 1 of his last 8. Martin is a well balanced fighter with a black belt in BJJ and a decent standup game (at least relative to Maia).
It is really tough for me to do this because of just how good of a submission artist Maia is, but I am taking Martin in this fight. Maia is only getting older and I do not think he will be able to have his way with another black belt at this age like he used to. Martin will be able to work him on the feet and hold his own in the clinch and grind out a win.
Rocco Martin by Decision +110 1 unit
Ok this is where my job gets a little tougher. The UFC has decided to debut a lot of new people to the organization and match them up against people with only a few fights under the banner.
Roosevelt Roberts vs Vinc Pichel Lightweight Bout
This fight is for the purpose of building up new lightweight contender Roosevelt Roberts. Vinc Pichel has been in the UFC since 2012 but has only 6 fights, that’s a pace that Dana would normally not tolerate if not for a purpose. He has won 4 out of his last 5 but after getting absolutely destroyed by Gregor Gillepsie last year, I don’t think he is going to see the top 10 in his career, now already being 36.
Roberts is a 25 years old and already 8-0 with 2 ufc wins and a win on Dana’s Contender series. He has only had one fight go the distance with 3 TKOs and 4 Submissions under his belt. The UFC looks to keep grooming him to be a contender in this weight class and I am completely on board. This is the most crowded weight class on the roster, I am excited to add another to the mix. Lock Roberts in.
Roosevelt Roberts by 2nd Round Submission -208 1 unit
Drew Dober vs Marco Polo Reyes Lightweight Bout
A couple of lesser known competitors face off in another lightweight battle on this main card with Drew Dober vs Marco Polo Reyes. Neither competitor has had too remarkable of UFC win in their career but they are hoping to change that in Minnesota. I think Drew is going to be able to use his youth to win this fight over a Marco Polo who has been pretty unremarkable in his 7 pro years. I’m giving the edge to Drew Dober in this one.
Drew Dober by Decision -365 1 unit
Alonzo Menifield vs Paul Craig
As I work through this list, it really shocks me how many names don’t even have a wikipedia page. Really making things tough for me, fortunately, Paul “the Bear Jew” Craig is one of my favorite fighters on this roster. Craig isn’t a crazy talent, having losses to some journey men and no wins over top names but he comes in the octagon with no intention of letting the judges decide his fate. The man won a fight by submission with 1 second left, another with 40 seconds left, lost with 9 seconds left. This man has never been to the scorecards in his whole professional career.
Crazily enough, Alonzo has never gone to decision, he has finished every opponent he has faced. He has incredibly heavy hands with 7 TKO/KO wins in 8 fights with the 8th fight being a submission victory. No matter how devastating his hands are, I do not think he is a match for Craig’s Jew Jitsu. Craig is going to close the distance and take his neck.
Paul Craig by 3rd Round Submission +197
Prelims:
I am going to preface this by saying there are a ton of new names on this card. Bet at your own risk but if you were ever to take some underdogs, this card is the night. Bookmakers aren’t going to be too wise on these fighters and you might be able to hit on a young stud.
Ricardo Ramos vs Journey Newson Bantomweight Bout
We have a first time UFC fighter here in Journey Newson, against Ricardo Ramos who was discovered on Dana’s Looking for a Fight. There isn’t too much information out there on Newson but comparing to the competition he has faced in the past, I don’t think he will be able to keep up with Ramos. I’m going with Ramos but this one, but wouldn’t be shocked to see Newson out there ready to make a name for himself.
Ricardo Ramos by Decision -305 .5 Units
Eryk Anders vs Vinicius Castro Light Heavyweight Bout
Dana finally doing been doing so well for years. Not putting your future stars against too good of competition so they get beaten, discouraged, and thrown to the win. Now don’t get me wrong, he absolutely did this with Eryk Anders previously, but this is a chance to cultivate a great athlete and let him grow into a future contender. Yet I still think he should be fighting at middleweight, I am ready to see if he has developed anything more than a left hand. Vinicius Castro lost his last fight to Menifield who I have losing in this card. I think Castro is going to join him in that regard, I am giving the win to Anders in this bout.
Eryk Anders by 1st Round TKO -235 2 units
Jared Gordon vs Dan Moret Lightweight Bout
This could very well be a winner stays loser leaves UFC bout with both men coming off of two consecutive losses. Dan Moret is yet to win in the UFC and hopes to change his fortunes. This is a hometown fight for Moret and he wants to prove to his friends, family, and most importantly Dana White that he belongs at this level and can move his way up the rankings.He is up against Jared Gordon, one of the better stories in MMA, beating a horrible drug addiction that nearly took his life several years ago. He looks to stay on the straight and narrow and find his way to UFC gold. I believe Gordon will bounce back this weekend and get his vision back on track and get the win over Moret.
Jared Gordon by Decision -263 1 Unit
Dalcha Lungiambula vs Dequan Townsend Light Heavyweight Bout
Both men here making their UFC debuts on the early prelims look to show they have what it takes earn a spot within their division. Dalcha Lungiambula is a 9-1 prospect with his only loss having come 4 years ago. Dequan Townsend has a record of 21-8 having fought professionally for the last 7 years and is filling in for Justin Ledet on just a few days notice. The UFC claims to have big plans for Dalcha (I am not going to write his last name again) and do not see them giving him an opponent he could not handle. Dalcha dominates this one.
Dalcha Lugiambula by 1st Round TKO -221 2 Units
Emily Whitmire vs Amanda Ribas Strawweight Bout
Two young 115 pounders (I think one of my legs weighs that much) face off in the second fight of the evening. Emily Whitmire only has 6 fights in her career amassing a record of 4-2 with 2 of those wins coming in the UFC. She faces 25 year old UFC newcomer Amanda Ribas, who has 7 fights to her name with a record of 6-1. Amanda has only gone to decision once in her pro career, you do not see that in the female divisions too much, so I am expecting some excitement in this bout. I am giving the edge to Ribas on this one, with fighters with such a small sample size of fights, I feel like this is a great opportunity to take an underdog and beat that book.
Amanda Ribas by 3rd Round Submission +237 1 unit
Marice Greene vs Junior Albini Heavyweight Bout
Nothing is more surprising about this card than two of the more recognizable names being the very first fight of the event. Maurice Greene has one eye set on climbing the ranks of this division, and the other set on Junior Albini’s diaper looking absolutely ridiculous in the octagon. Greene came to the UFC by way of TUF losing to the eventual winner, Juan Espino Dieppa, but has won both his bouts since. Junior Albini was an up and coming prospect just a few years ago with a big win over Timothy Johnson (I was there, was pretty dope), but since he has dropped 3 straight. Although he looks like he is on a bad skid, you also have to realize he is only 28 years old, and is still growing as a fighter. I think he is far more talented Greene coming into this match, he just needs to make sure not to get caught with Greene’s power. If Albini fights smart and keeps his distance he picks Greene apart and takes this one.
Junior Albini by 2nd Round TKO +121 1 unit
Alright everyone, these are my picks for the evening. This was one of the tougher cards I have ever tried to bet on. So many new people joining the ranks, I am hoping to find some new favorites to spend my money on in the future. Stay tuned for when I eventually think of a clever name for this blog and let me know if you have any questions on my picks or any fighters on this card. Peace be with you.