The last Saturday before a week off of fights (not counting DWCS) so lets make it count! I am going to be perfectly honest, I only picked 2 underdogs on this whole card. I studied hard, looked into every damn matchup, and there are only 2 underdogs I feel like have a real betting chance to win. I hate when I have picks like these, because if we take any Ls they hit a lot harder. I put my confidence next to each one, you can use that as a guide or as a warning on how heavily invested I am into this one. I had a pretty down week after an incredible one previously, there are always checks and balances in this game, I got balanced out hard. I put my nose to the grindstone on this one and am promising a great evening of betting.
This is an ok card. Other sports are back so it is as good a time as any to kind of scale down the cards since you won’t have as many eyes on you anyways. Once baseball gets cancelled and the NBA and NHL finish, all eyes will be back (mostly because I think there is no shot in hell that football ends up working out). Derek Brunson vs Edmen Shahbazyan is the ultimate gatekeeper fighter, it is the same thing so many before Edmen had to get through to make it to the next level. Joanne Calderwood is a sweetheart and Jennifer Maia finally made weight! Vicente Luque vs Randy Brown should be just what the doctor ordered in terms of violence. All the fights are pretty solid, just very low stakes and steep lines.
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Derek Brunson vs Edmen Shahbazyan Middleweight Bout
I completely understand that all of Derek Brunson’s losses have been against elite opponents. It is hard to beat any of these guys that have been perennial top 5 middleweights. He has fallen to 3 UFC champions, and add in Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza and that is just a murderers row of 185ers. Now we got that BS out of the way, he beat an old Lyota Machida, an untested Ian Heinisch, and the Ring BoyTM Elias Theodorou as his best wins in the last 3 years. That Elias fight was one of the worst fights I have ever seen in my entire life.
Now Edmen is arguably very untested. His biggest win is arguably Brad Tavares. That being said, he destroys everyone! This man comes in and can beat you anywhere he wants. He is strong, fast, and has great cardio (although he never needs it). It will be very interesting to see if Derek can take him into deep waters and wrestle him for a bit, but we all have seen Brunson go to sleep plenty of times. I just do not see a world where Brunson is the one to stop this juggernaut. Every single win is a first round finish, up against a guy who has been KOd 5 times in his career, just a perfect storm.
Edmen Shahbazyan by 1st Round TKO -370 2 units
Joanne Calderwood vs Jennifer Maia Flyweight Bout
To be honest, this fight is such a close matchup, that I just went with Maia because she is the underdog. I love Calderwood and she is so sweet and fun to listen to, but she isn’t spectacular in the cage. She definitely has the kicking advantage with her Muay Thai background, but Maia is better nearly everywhere else. We haven’t seen Maia make weight in quite some time, so I am feeling we will get the best version of her tonight and she will not disappoint. These girls have common losses and Maia beat Andrade like 8 years ago so there’s that. Hard to bet on flyweights because it is just cannibalistic until they get destroyed by Valentina.
Jennifer Maia by Decision +165 1 unit
Vicente Luque vs Randy Brown Welterweight Bout
VIOLENCE!!!! This was a matchup Dana knew he had to put on this card. We have 2 guys that like to stand and bang. Vicente Luque has one of the best chins in all of MMA and loves to bring the fight to you. He said in an interview recently that he feels the ultimate way of domination is to finish your opponent. This man does not want to leave it to the judges anymore, he wants to put you the fuck to sleep. Randy Brown is coming off of 2 solid wins against Alves and Barberena, but this would be his moment to show he belongs with the big boys at 170. I like both of these guys a lot, but Randy Brown is just not at the same level as Luque. Hate to do MMA math but that Niko KO while on top was a really bad look. Great for him to bounce back, but I see him tumbling back down after this.
Vincente Luque by 2nd Round TKO -215 2 units
Lando Vannata vs Bobby Green Lightweight Bout
I rewatched the first fight in preparation for this rematch. Green maybe took the last round but Lando clearly took the first 2 for me so it would have been a draw with that point deduction. I saw Lando as the much more talented fighter in the cage, with a more well rounded skill set. If his cardio can hold up again, he should take this one barring any illegal strikes. I do not believe that Bobby Green has added anything to his arsenal having watched that Clay Guida fight. I do not believe that Lando has gotten worse, maybe slightly better after getting beaten up by Diakiese.
Lando Vannata by Decision -165 1 unit
Ed Herman vs Gerald Meerschaert Light Heavyweight Bout
Ed Herman is coming off 2 consecutive wins for the first time since 2012. This guy has been beaten up by a hell of a lot of different people. He has had his moments, but overall just never has been all that special as a pro fighter. Now Gerald Meerschaert has this weird issue where he does not look like he gives a flying fuck inside the octagon and it pisses me off beyond belief. I ride with him a lot and I have been on both ends of disappointment. He is the better fighter both on paper and canvas here. Better wins, better skill set, better just about everything other than height and reach. All logic points to Gerald winning this fight, so he better win this fucking fight.
Gerald Meerschaert by 3rd Round Submission -155 1 unit
Kevin Holland vs Trevin Giles Middleweight Bout
I am a former Kevin Holland hater currently in recovery. I have picked wrong for and against him pretty much every single time he has fought and I am sick of it. This time, I will pick right. Being right in this instance, is riding with him. He destroyed Anthony Hernandez in the cage and it was quite a sight to see, I picked against him foolishly, but if that Kevin shows up, this isn’t even a contest. Trevin Giles’ last performance was a garbage split decision win over a 24 hour notice undersized James Krause. A lot had it scored for Krause, I didn’t and that is likely because I put all my money on Giles as a pick’em fighter with every advantage you could imagine. Giles is not a good fighter, Kevin Holland is a good fighter, put that together and this is a no brainer win for Kevin Holland, likely pretty quick too.
Kevin Holland by 1st Round Submission -240 3 units
Prelims
Frankie Saenz vs Jonathan Martinez Lightweight Bout
Saenz is 39 and not that good no more. Martinez missed weight so fuck him, but is the better, younger fighter and will win.
Jonathan Martinez by Decision -270 2 units
Nathan Maness vs Johnny Muñoz Featherweight Bout
Going to speak briefly about this one, I haven’t been writing about too many prelims lately as I have been swamped with work and haven’t had a lot of time to write. Nathan Maness is a very even fighter to Johnny Munoz. Johnny might possibly be a favorite under different circumstances. That being said, this is on 24 hours notice, the smart bet is to take this man as a near pick’em favorite as that is how smart betting should go.
Nathan Maness by 2nd Round TKO -130 2 units
Jamall Emmers vs Vincent Cachero Featherweight Bout
No brainer. 24 hours notice, Emmers is a division bigger, arguably a better fighter anyways, don’t bet on this in all reality but if you want to, do Emmers.
Jamall Emmers by 1st Round TKO -415 3 units
Chris Gutiérrez vs Cody Durden Bantamweight Bout
This is the only true big dog I saw worth taking. Cody is a newcomer and has KO power, let’s ride with him to start the night and see if he can do the damn thing.
Cody Durden by 2nd Round TKO +225 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
This week is a big test for me. I have picked Nate Maness and Jamall Emmers due to the fact that both of their opponents are now extremely short notice. Is everyone going to do the same thing? Very likely. If not I will stick with this strategy because it is only logical. But if they win and I still don’t place well, I will stop doing that because everyone fucking does it and it is not worth it.
This is all I got for you this evening, might end up putting together a parlay later since I picked so many favorites, but I want to see if the lines move around a bit. This should be a pretty entertaining card and we are back in the 25 foot cage, so violence galore. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!