Jake’s Punch Lines UFC Vegas 3

It is Saturday and we are back with another beautiful night of violence in the Apex Center! After going a beautiful 8-2 last week on what I thought was going to be one of the worst cards of all time, I am looking to stay on course for a card that looks like it could have been a PPV if they added a title shot on top. Now this is a nightmare card for me in the sense that I fucking love the favorites. I don’t know if I will ever put out such a favorite heavy pick blog again, I have maybe 2 or 3 dogs on the whole card. A lot of the lines moved away from me while I waited too long to put in my bets (I like to go fight by fight just in case I’m on a cold streak). 

Fuck the lines lets get into these matchups. Blaydes vs Volkov is setting up a number 2 contender bout with Jair most likely (Ngannou is next and Cormier is retiring after the title fight no doubt). Im am admittedly a big Burgos fan having trained at Tiger Schulmann’s for a couple of years, but Emmett is more than happy to come in swinging so that will be beautiful violence. Skip the token women’s fight (love WMMA but that fight isn’t main card potential) and we have Belal Muhammed vs Lyman Good which is what MMA was created for, style vs style. I love a fight night that can provide matchups like this without charging me $65.

Let’s get into these picks already: 

Main Card

Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov Heavyweight Bout

Curtis Blaydes has “ragdolled” every single person that he has fought in the UFC not named Francis Ngannou. He has arguably the best wrestling in the weight class and has put together a pretty good striking arsenal, TKOing JDS in his last outing. To be honest there hasn’t been a single fight that Ngannou has fought in that I thought he wouldn’t win, including his title shot, so I do not hold those losses against Blaydes too much.

Volkov is a very very good fighter. He has only lost one fight in his UFC career and he would have won if he kept his distance from Lewis in the last 20 seconds of the round. His loss to a 87 year old Cheick Kongo is pretty suspect and his lack of great competition faced is definitely what makes him such an underdog in this fight. His win over Werdum can be seen as impressive, but Werdum was older and hadn’t been facing anyone all that good since his title run and USADA cracking down. 

I find it very hard to believe that Blaydes will lose this fight. He does not make mistakes all that often, and Volkov does not have what it takes to land that one punch that can rattle him early. Blaydes will get the takedowns, the only hard part will be keeping the long limbed Volkov down. 250+ lbs is tough to get off of you no matter how lanky you are. I hate bridge jumper lines, but you would just be stupid to bet against Razor Blaydes in this one.

Curtis Blaydes by 3rd Round TKO -440 3 units

Josh Emmett vs Shane Burgos Featherweight Bout

Shane Burgos is a fucking animal. That guy cut his hair off mid fight because it was annoying him. He has one of the highest significant strike rates in the whole UFC and has brutalized pretty much everyone he has faced not named Kattar or Swanson. His striking is some of the best you will see in the weight class he just has to put everything else together. 

Josh Emmett has bombs for hands. He is going to take a lot of damage in order to land that shot that puts out Burgos’ lights. I am not sure if Emmett has won a round in his last 4 fights, but he has won 3 of them. Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic do this cute little thing where they are better than you everywhere then get knocked the fuck out, out of no where. Shane Burgos does not have that issue, Kattar pieced him up fair and square. Burgos will land a ton of strikes and stay out of range of Emmett’s bombs till he gasses out. 

Shane Burgos by Decision -155 2 units

Raquel Pennington vs Marion Reneau Bantamweight Bout

I do not have too much to say about this fight. I understand it’s necessary, but find me one person that still gets excited about Bantamweight or Featherweight WMMA and you found a goddamn liar. Raquel Pennington has only lost to the best the weight class has to offer. Marion Reneau has lost to a lot worse. I know MMA math is stupid, Reneau beat Andrade who beat Pennington, fuck off with that shit too. Pennington is at a higher level and she has her bae Tecia there to impress.

Raquel Pennington by Decision -200 1 unit

Belal Muhammad vs Lyman Good Welterweight Bout

When god created man, he wanted us to look like Lyman Good. Unfortunately, we turned out more like Blagoy Ivanov and Roy Nelson. Lyman Good will always be one of the best Welterweight strikers in the world and one of the bottom in every other category. Doesn’t make for the best MMA fighter, but as long as he stops you from taking him down, you are in his world. His loss to Demian Maia was tough, but that is to one of the best BJJ practitioners in MMA history, hard to do much against it without much BJJ or wrestling of your own. This fight was supposed to happen in 2016, but good had to pull out due to a potential doping violation. 

Belal has been pretty great since joining the UFC roster, 7-3 in his bouts with some pretty major victories. The only problem he has, is that he does not finish fights. He will hold you down and clinch and grapple and land enough strikes to take the decision. These are smaller cages and the fights have been in favor of brutality in most cases during the pandemic. While I believe Belal is the more well rounded fighter, Lyman has more tools to put him away at any moment. This is one of the only underdogs I am taking for the evening, Good all the way.

Lyman Good by 2nd Round TKO +105 1 unit

Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts Catchweight (160 lbs) Bout

This fight along with the next should be no brainers. I hate how many favorites I am taking, and I am worried that there are some Vinc Pichel vibes going into this one, but if you are picking Jim Miller it is for the sake of the payout. Roosevelt Roberts looked phenomenal and motivated in his last bout. His striking was on point and his submission game was beautiful. He has a smaller cut to make here which gives him a nice advantage given how tall he is for the weight class. Jim Miller has been fighting for 15 years and doesn’t have much to show for it other than a few wins over young fighters that became a lot better after. I love the guy and he has done a ton for the sport, but this is as much of a gatekeeper fight as you can get.

Roosevelt Roberts by Decision -200 3 units

Prelims

Clay Guida vs Bobby Green Lightweight Bout

A lot of the same here as the matchup above other than this isn’t a gatekeeper fight. Both of these dudes have been doing this a long time with no success since before I can remember. I want to pick Guida more than anything because there is absolutely no reason that Bobby Green should be -210 but at the same time his losses are a lot better than Guida’s losses (you can’t lose to Jim Miller and still be relevant to me, I don’t care if you beat unmotivated BJ Penn). My advice is to stay away, but for the sake of my record I just have to go with Green.

Bobby Green by Decision -210 .5 units (don’t bet on this fight)

Tecia Torres vs Brianna Van Buren Strawweight Bout

Tecia Torres has lost to some badass women in her last 4 bouts. 3 champions and an undefeated prospect. Her only loss before that, was to the other former Strawweight champion in Thug Rose. Brianna Van Buren is on a nice 6 fight winning streak, 3 of which came on the same night during an Invicta tournament. Her UFC debut win against Livia Souza made a statement that there was a new player in the 115 class. I am so back and forth on this one. If Tecia loses here, I am not sure Dana keeps her around. All of Tecia’s losses came against bigger opponents (other than Andrade but she’s a strong lady) and Van Buren is so tiny. Fuck I hate to do this but I am going with the favorite again. Even though she is shorter by a couple inches Brianna still has the reach advantage, and she will just be too overwhelming for Tecia. 

Brianna Van Buren by Decision -215 1 unit 

Marc-André Barriault vs Oskar Piechota Middleweight Bout

Talk about a loser goes home match, this is the epitome. Both of these lads are coming off of 3 straight losses. Oskar has been finished in his last 3, and Marc-Andre has gone to decision in his last 3 (one of them split at least). They both beat up a bunch of tomato cans for their whole careers to get to this moment and it is tough to say who is truly the best fighter based on these resumes, but the safer bet is with Barriault so I am going to take it.

Marc-André Barriault by 2nd Round TKO -130 1 unit

Cortney Casey vs Gillian Robertson Flyweight Bout

This is a close matchup between a couple ladies who keep getting the hype and letting people down. Cortney Casey should be 1-4 in her last 5 if you ask me, but you aren’t asking me so who cares. Gillian Robertson has looked great with 2 bad losses to prospects. I don’t see any evidence that Casey should be picked and with the line so close, the only logical choice is Robertson in this one. Don’t put your savings on it, but Casey is pretty overrated.

Gillian Robertson by Decision -120 1 unit

Frank Camacho vs Justin Jaynes Catchweight (158 lbs) Bout

Don’t have much to say here. Justin Jaynes could very well become a name to know in the UFC in the future, but taking a fight on 2 days notice is just too much to overcome in my eyes. Camacho has the strength advantage, height and reach advantage, and just is more prepared.

Frank Camacho by 3rd Round TKO -330 2 units

Roxanne Modafferi vs Lauren Murphy Flyweight Bout

The toughest part about picking this fight is you do not know which Roxanne is going to show up for this one. If it is the Roxanne that destroyed Maycee Barber, then she wins without a second thought. If it is the other Roxanne’s we have seen then Murphy shouldn’t have much of an issue here. To be perfectly frank, this smaller cage will be huge to Roxanne’s benefit for takedowns and staying inside. The issue is that Lauren is a great BJJ fighter and will be far more dangerous on the ground than Maycee was. After going back and forth a ton here, I am riding with Roxanne. Lauren Murphy gets taken down by good grapplers and Roxanne is one of the best she will have faced.

Roxanne Modafferi by Decision -105 1 unit

Austin Hubbard vs Max Rohskopf Lightweight Bout

This is a big fight that no one knows is a big fight. Max Rohskopf is the future. The guy has insane BJJ and was a D1 wrestler, winning all of his fights by submission. Hubbard lost a super one sided fight to Madsen who is a slightly better wrestler than Max but does not have the submission game. If Hubbard wins this fight, it derails a huge hype train. I want to see how stacked this weight class can get, and Max can climb to the top quick. 

Max Rohskopf by 1st Round Submission -215 3 units

DraftKings Lineup:

As I have been doing as of late, putting together some of my picks I am most confident in to make a DraftKings DFS lineup. I have been doing well in terms of fights right but not getting the payouts I want. This week I have it, I feel it in my damn bones.

This one took a lot out of me and I have no idea why. Last week my picks flowed out of me like I ate chipotle, and that card was absolute booty. This week we have a beautiful card and I am going back and forth on so much. That being said, I never change my picks after I post and I never will. This is locked in so let’s ride or die together. All the money that would’ve been spent at the bar this weekend goes to our degenerate gambling habits so it evens out. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!