Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Vegas 4

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DUSTIN POIRIER V. DAN HOOKER

This fight has fight of the year contender written all over it. These two guys that love to stand and trade and have a brawl. Poirier is looking to rebound from his September 2019 2nd round submission loss in the title fight to Khabib. Hooker is coming off probably his biggest win, a main event decision win over Paul Felder. It was a split decision, I thought Felder won, but that’s besides the point. This fight is bound to have fireworks and I wouldn’t want to miss it. Both guys have had similar UFC careers. Started off as featherweights, and were doing alright. Then moved up to lightweight and went on a tear. 

Poirier is a solid all around fighter. His boxing is really good and his wrestling is strong as well. If he turned a corner when he moved up to lightweight, he turned another corner in the Anthony Pettis fight. He dominated Pettis on his way to a 3rd round body triangle submission win, then followed that up with an excellent performance in a 4th round TKO win over Justin Gaethje. After Gaethje, Poirier got the rematch against Eddie Alvarez (first fight ended in a No Contest due to illegal knees) and Poirier won by 2nd round TKO. Poirier’s next fight was an interim lightweight title fight against Max Holloway. Poirier had his best fight of his career. His boxing was on point and he just picked Holloway apart. It was great. Then he had the title unification fight against Khabib. He almost caught Khabib in a guillotine, but other than that, it was a typical Khabib domination fight. But Hooker is definitely not close to Khabib, in style or skill.

Hooker is a lanky kickboxer. He likes to move forward and go for the kill. He is a pressure fighter but sometimes leaves himself open to get hit. He didn’t show much power at featherweight, but started getting back in the KO/TKO column with the move up to lightweight. Hooker is 7-1 at lightweight (4 KO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC), with the one loss being a KO loss to Edson Barboza. His lightweight resume is pretty impressive: Ross Pearson, Marc Diakiese, Jim Miller, Gilbert Burns, James Vick, Al Iaquinta, and Paul Felder. Felder and Iaquinta were the two decision wins for Hooker. All of the fights were brawls.

This is going to be a fun fucking fight. Their styles blend perfectly. Hooker is a pressure fighter that likes to move forward. Poirier is a boxer that has great footwork and works best when he fights pressure fighters. I expect Hooker to bring the fight to Poirier. Poirier is going to use a similar game plan that he used against Max Holloway. Poirier also has wrestling and grappling as a plan B if he needs to fall back into it. I can’t see Poirier losing this fight, he is the better all around fighter. Don’t count Hooker out, but this is Poirier’s fight to lose. The only thing I can guarantee is that this fight will be entertaining.

Dustin Poirier by 3rd round TKO -230

MIKE PERRY V. MICKEY GALL

Classic striker v. grappler matchup. It’s a tired ass cliche in MMA, but this one definitely meets the criteria. Mike Perry has 11 KO/TKO wins and 0 submission wins. Mickey Gall has 0 KO/TKO wins and 5 submission wins. This is a weird matchup. I hate having to make a pick for this fight. Perry has been doing his best Diego Sanchez impersonation, except his girlfriend is going to be the only person in his corner. Perry has been posting weird videos. He looks like he is already beat up. He has quit his gym recently. I don’t know what point he is trying to prove but if it’s that he has a stable camp and is a dependable person to bet on, I am not buying it. Mickey Gall on the other hand has been improving in each of his fights, but his striking still needs to improve. He is at a solid camp and is going to have a normal amount of coaches in his corner for this fight.

Perry might be one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster. I can’t imagine Dana getting rid of him anytime soon. He might get the Diego Sanchez lifetime contract. His fight style is entertaining, his out of octagon antics are interesting. I just hope he doesn’t get killed because of stupid decisions like not having a real camp and training by himself. Perry is 6-6 in the UFC, 4 of those wins coming by KO/TKO. He is definitely a striker that goes for the kill. Perry aims to entertain and he will probably go for the kill in this fight too. I can’t imagine he won’t charge Gall and try to knock him out. He’s won 2 out of his last 5 fights. Those two wins were a split decision over Paul Felder and a unanimous decision over Alex Oliveira. His losses were a 1st round armbar submission loss to Cowboy Cerrone, a split decision loss to Vicente Luque, and a 1st round TKO loss to Geoff Neal. He is on a 2 fight losing streak, the Luque and Neal fights. He is definitely feeling the pressure to get a win.

Gall has been building his resume properly, which is impressive since he has been in the UFC since his 2nd professional fight. He’s 5-2 in the UFC with 4 submission wins and 1 decision win. One of his 2 losses was a decision (Randy Brown), and his other loss was a 2nd round TKO (Diego Sanchez). The Diego Sanchez fight was too much too soon for Gall. Other than Diego, Gall has seen a proper rise in talent each fight. Perry is a good gatekeeper for him here. 

If this was Perry a couple of years ago and he was in a normal camp, I’d probably pick him. He has faced better talent, he has more experience. But he seems to have lost his mind. Going into this fight with only his girlfriend in his corner is not the best strategy. Gall will be looking to grab a limb on a wild Perry strike and get the submission win. Perry will be the 2nd best fighter Gall has faced, behind Diego. Perry is another gatekeeper for Gall to challenge and is a good test for him. Perry said his girlfriend is only there to put ice on his back and give him some water if it makes it to the 2nd round. I think he is going to run in wildly and go for the kill. The line on this is a little too stacked towards Perry for my liking. Perry is probably the better all around fighter, but -335 is just too ridiculous for me. Gall at +255 looks good to me.

Mickey Gall by 2nd round submission +255

GIAN VILLANTE V. MAURICE GREENE

Heavyweight battle between a former light heavyweight that got too lazy to cut down to 205, and a giant heavyweight that prefers submissions to knockouts. This is a weird heavyweight matchup. Villante was a big time athlete playing college football. He showed promise in his early fights. But he just became a straight brawler. He likes a dirty fight. The problem was his stamina; he would brawl and gas out. He’s been very inconsistent in his career trading wins and losses. There was a run of 4 straight split decisions. It was impressive. But he loves brawls and most of 15 of his 29 professional fights have ended in KO/TKO. Ten of those were victories for him. This heavyweight run is so he doesn’t have to cut weight. You can tell by his weigh in. It was not the prettiest sight. 

He is going up against the 6 foot 7 inch giant Maurice Greene. The Crochet King happily welcomes Villante to the heavyweight division. He is trying to bounce back from a 2 fight losing streak to Sergey Pavlovich and Alexey Oleynik. Both of those losses were finishes, Pavlovich won by 1st round TKO, and Oleynik won by 2nd round submission. The 2 losses stopped a lot of momentum after a hot 3-0 start for Greene. His debut included the first triangle choke in heavyweight history. He followed that up with a meh split decision win over Jeff Hughes. Then showed striking improvement with a 1st round TKO win over Junior Albini. Greene was showing improvement each fight then got a big step up in improvement after Albini and stumbled with Pavlovich and Oleynik. Villante could be a course correction for the young heavyweight. 

Villante is known for pretty quick starts as he tries to get quick finishes before gassing out. Greene isn’t usually a killer like that, although he has a kick boxing background. He has more submission wins than KO/TKO wins. I think Villante’s aggressiveness might hurt him here. Greene has a big size advantage and is very good using his reach advantage with kicks and counter punches. I think this might not last long. My prediction is Villante charges forward and whoever lands first wins. If no one lands in the 1st round, it might be a 3 round boring decision, but let’s hope the small octagon saves us from that.

Maurice Greene by 1st round TKO -240

BRENDAN ALLEN V. KYLE DAUKAUS

Brendan Allen was hoping to get the biggest name on his resume with Ian Heinisch making a quick turn around. Unfortunately, Heinisch got hurt making the turn around and had to pull out. Luckily for Allen, they were able to get Kyle Daukaus to take his place. This is a matchup of middleweight grapplers. Brendan Allen is 2-0 in the UFC. He beat Kevin Holland in his debut by 2nd round submission and followed that up with a 1st round TKO win over Tom Breese. Allen has a game plan. Get a takedown and use his ground and pound or submission skills to get the finish. Daukaus is also a grappler. He uses takedowns to get wins. Daukaus doesn’t have the ground and pound skillset in his arsenal though. He relies on submissions (8 of his 9 wins come by submission). This will be a fun fight for fans that like to watch grapplers and scrambles. I’d like to see Daukaus have a full fight camp before taking this fight, but he had 2 weeks to prepare so not as bad as some of the guys taking the fight on a day or two notice. This can either be a scrambling special or the grappling can cancel out and it can turn into a kickboxing match.

Brendan Allen by decision -315

PHILIPE LINS V. TANNER BOSER

This is one of those heavyweight fights that scream “not exciting.” Maybe I will be wrong, but after watching Philipe Lins v. Andrei Arlovski, I will not buy into Lins hype until I see it. They said he had knockout power and was a fun heavyweight to watch. I saw an out of shape guy with pillow hands barely throw anything. It was not a fun fight to watch. I was not too impressed. Maybe he was overwhelmed because it was his first UFC fight and against a big legend in Arlovski. Lins was a PFL tournament champion so the talent is there. But it didn’t really show in his first UFC fight. He is facing Tanner Boser, who is 1-1 in the octagon. Boser won his debut against Daniel Spitz in a decision, then lost his second fight a decision to Ciryl Gane. Boser is a volume striker with pillow hands. Boser is good at using distance and his cardio is solid. He does not gas out and has a strong chin. Boser is one of those annoying heavyweights to watch. He does not get hit often and seems to survive to the judges’ scorecards. If this one gets out of the first round, I can’t see Lins winning. I don’t think his cardio will keep up with Boser. Lins will rely on the big shot. Boser will keep throwing strike after strike and try for a point victory.

Tanner Boser by decision -110

SEAN WOODSON V. JULIAN EROSA

Sean Woodson made a splash onto the UFC roster with a big debut win over Kyle Bochniak. Bochniak isn’t a huge name, but he was a bigger name than Woodson and people didn’t really expect Woodson to get that win. Woodson is an undefeated prospect and is looking to build on that record. Woodson is a lanky kickboxer that has worked on takedown defense and is pretty good at using his long reach and legs to keep his opponents at a distance. He was supposed to be fighting Kyle Nelson, but Nelson couldn’t make the fight and Julian Erosa took the fight on 2 days notice. Erosa is making his 3rd stint in the UFC. Erosa was always a low talent UFC fighter. He is an awkward striker and uses weird movements to try to not get hit. He just is not good enough of an athlete or fast enough to avoid being hit. That is a problem in the UFC. I think that will probably be another problem here. Good for him to get the pay day here though.

Sean Woodson by 1st round TKO -500

PRELIMS

LUIS PENA V. KHAMA WORTHY

“Violent Bob Ross” Luis Pena takes on Khama Worthy, the man with one of the biggest underdog wins in UFC history (betting wise). Worthy had a nasty KO of Devonta Smith that was nasty and gave him a UFC contract. This is a grappler v. striker matchup. Pena is a grappler that likes to scramble and ground and pound into position to submission or just pound his opponent into oblivion. He recently moved his camp from AKA to American Top Team. This was a financial move, but I think freeing up that stress could be extremely beneficial to his fight game. Worthy on the other hand is just a striker. He is a counter striker that is not much of a grappler. He can fend off some takedowns, but I can’t imagine he will be able to keep Pena off for good. Pena will try to get a hold of Worthy early and often. Pena is going to try to break him down and get a big win.

Luis Pena by decision -260

TAKASHI SATO V. JASON WITT

Takashi Sato by 2nd round TKO -280

KAY HANSEN V. JINH YU FREY

Jinh Yu Frey by decision +145

JORDAN GRIFFIN V. YOUSSEF ZALAL

Jordan Griffin by decision EVEN

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

DUSTIN POIRIER V. DAN HOOKER