MAIN CARD
ISRAEL ADESANYA V. MARVIN VETTORI
Israel Adesanya is coming off his first loss, granted it was at light heavyweight to the champion there Jan Blachowicz, and is looking for a rebound win against an opponent he has beaten before. Marvin Vettori is going to try to implement the same style of fight Jan did when Jan beat Adesanya. He will try to wrestle and control Adesanya and not let the fight stay on the feet too long. It’s a solid strategy and it definitely worked for Jan. It worked for Vettori in their first fight when Vettori won the 3rd round of the fight.
The problem with this plan is that Vettori is not as big as Jan. He may not be able to just wrestle Adesanya to the mat and control the fight. He may not be able to walk through strikes to get takedowns like Jan did. While Jan did wrestle a lot in his fight against Adesanya, he did also stand with him for a decent amount of time too, and he ate a decent amount of strikes. Can Vettori take those shots? Will Vettori be able to get the takedowns that Jan got? Adesanya’s takedown defense against middleweights has been solid. This fight is also in the bigger octagon, so there is more room for Adesanya to avoid Vettori and his takedown attempts.
I see this fight playing out like the Adesanya v. Whittaker fight. Vettori is going to try to move forward and get takedowns, and he will throw big strikes to get close, and Adesanya will counter and I think he is going to connect often.
Israel Adesanya (-250) by 3rd round TKO
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO V. BRANDON MORENO
The first fight was so good that it seems almost impossible for this one to live up to that one. That fight was on 10 days notice and Figueiredo had a stomach infection and was hospitalized the night before and they still put on a classic 5 round war. I really hope they can match that battle here, but as I said, I can’t imagine it being possible to have a fight as good as their first one. By now these guys should know exactly what they’re in for. The only thing that should be worrisome for Moreno is that Figgy isn’t coming off a stomach infection and his power might be stronger than it was. It’s one thing to take those shots when the guy was in the hospital the night before, but can he take those shots when Figgy is fully healthy?
Moreno is scrappy as hell and his grappling/scrambling is impressive. He showed a lot of grit in the first fight and was able to stand with Figgy and take his shots. Figgy left that fight impressed by what Moreno did. Moreno was scrappy and threw a lot of strikes and scrambled and grappled his way to winning a couple of rounds.
Now both guys know what to expect from the other, and they both have had a full training camp to get ready. My sucker pick would be for Moreno, I’ve liked him since he was on TUF. I would love for him to win. But I also like Figuieredo and think he is the better all around fighter and has the power that Moreno doesn’t have. Figgy has the ability to break fighters that I haven’t seen in other flyweights.
Deiveson Figueiredo (-185) by 4th round TKO
LEON EDWARDS V. NATE DIAZ
This seems to be a card of me picking against guys I have always liked. Leon “Boring as fuck” Edwards is coming off finger poke of doom fight against Belal Muhammad to face Nate Diaz. The winner of this allegedly gets to fight Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title. Nate definitely doesn’t deserve a title shot. Leon might deserve a title shot, but he might be the only person more boring than Kamaru Snoozeman. This matchup makes zero sense for Nate, unless he got paid an insane amount and the fix is in. Jorge Masvidal, an undersized welterweight, manhandled him and obliterated him in his last fight. Now he is going to fight a legitimately sized welterweight? Nate’s last fight ended because Jorge opened a scar tissue cut over his eye so badly the doctors called it. Leon will definitely target that spot.
I love Nate, and would love for him to win this fight, but I don’t see how it happens unless he can avoid being hit at all. Leon has been on a tear and wants a title shot. Diaz has been fighting sparingly and just wants to get paid these days. I hope Diaz proves me wrong here, but I am not liking his chances here.
Leon Edwards (-600) by decision
DEMIAN MAIA V. BELAL MUHAMMAD
Another long time favorite that I hate picking against, Demian Maia is on the card. If I thought Nate is too past his prime for his matchup, Demian is way past that line. Maia is in his 40s and this is probably his last UFC fight. I am shocked he took a fight against a younger guy and didn’t take a legends fight. That would have made more sense. I have been aching for a Maia v. Diego Sanchez fight. I am probably the only one, but Diego has never been submitted in his UFC career, so that would have been a great retirement matchup for both guys. But I digress, an aging Demian Maia against a young and hungry Belal Muhammad is a tough matchup for Maia. Belal has strong wrestling and decent striking. We know Maia is a BJJ wizard with basic striking that he only uses to move closer to his opponent. Belal wanted a big name after his last fight against Leon “Boring as fuck” Edwards ended in a finger poke of doom, and Maia is definitely a big name, and I think Belal is about to get his biggest win.
Belal Muhammad (-220) by decision
PAUL CRAIG V. JAMAHAL HILL
This fight is almost guaranteed to end in a finish. Paul Craig has had 1 fight go to a decision and it was a split draw against Shogun. Jamahal Hill has had 4 decision wins and 4 wins by knockout. So out of a combined 27 fights, 5 have gone to decision. I love this matchup. Both guys just go out there and fight. Hill’s path to victory is testing Craig’s chin and getting a knockout. Craig’s path to victory is hoping to catch Hill and submitting him. Craig is a submission specialist. Neither guy backs down from a fight. This one probably won’t go the distance and that is what we all love to see. I’ll be honest here, I like Hill more than Craig, but I have been picking too many favorites on the main card. Craig is wild and somehow gets these crazy wins. But I won’t be shocked when Hill knocks him out in the first round.
Paul Craig (+220) by 3rd round submission
PRELIMS
DREW DOBER V. BRAD RIDDELL
Drew Dober is looking to bounce back from his loss to Islam Makhachev. Brad Riddell, one of Adesanya’s teammates, is looking to get a big win here and move up the lightweight rankings. Riddell finally gets a fight against a guy that won’t try to wrestle too much. Maybe it’s my faulty memory, but I feel like City Kickboxing guys don’t have great nights when Adesanya fights. I could be making this up, and I still like Dober in this fight more than I like Riddell.
Drew Dober (-150) by 2nd round TKO
ERYK ANDERS V. DARREN STEWART
Darren Stewart (+120) by decision
LAUREN MURPHY V. JOANNE CALDERWOOD
Lauren Murphy (+110) by decision
MOVSAR EVLOEV V. HAKEEM DAWODU
Movsar Evloev (-235) by decision
PANNIE KIANZAD V. ALEXIS DAVIS
Alexis Davis (+175) by decision
MATT FREVOLA V. TERRANCE MCKINNEY
Matt Frevola (-210) by 2nd round TKO
CHASE HOOPER V. STEVEN PETERSON
Chase Hooper (-120) by 3rd round submission
FARES ZIAM V. LUIGI VENDRAMINI
Luigi Vendramini (-105) by 1st round TKO
FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
MATT FREVOLA V. TERRANCE MCKINNEY